>>Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters. <<
This has got to be wrong as written. First, it’s hard to believe that 96% of registered voters will vote. That would be a huge turnout.
Second, 96% is essentially everyone in the poll, and if the 96% are splitting 51/47, how does the overall polling result get down to a tie? Not possible mathematically.
I’m guessing that the statement has a misprint on the percentage sure to vote. It would make sense if it said 46% said they are certain to vote and Romney leads 51/47 in that group, or any other percentage between 40% and 60%, but the 96% number is clearly impossible.
“This has got to be wrong as written. First, it’s hard to believe that 96% of registered voters will vote. That would be a huge turnout.”
It just means that 96% of Rasmussen’s sample say they are certain to vote. Rasmussen’s sample isn’t just a scattershot cross-section of people. He deliberately focuses on prime, engaged voters.
Two reasons they may have gotten this number: It’s extrapolated from a relatively smallish sample, and it’s the answer people like to give about themselves and doesn’t necessarily mean they will vote.