Adrian Gray @adrian_gray CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) October 26, 2012
Posted on 10/26/2012 2:38:19 PM PDT by Perdogg
ping
The killer is in his last line:
"220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008."
I would bet we make up that 10,000 margin in Warren County alone.
It's also useful to note that Rich Beeson, Romney's campaign manager, says that Ds are "cannibalizing" their election day vote to try to get "early" votes while Romney's campaign has targeted, as he calls them, "low propensity voters" during early voting. They KNOW the base will turn out.
Adrian Gray @adrian_gray CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) October 26, 2012
http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/
I saw that, thank you.
I just want Nov. 6 to be here now. All this speculation is just killing me.
one thing very very few peopel remark on is how many unhappy Dems that voted for Obambi are going to switch - they may be some of the most happy to vote early.
Bkmk for later
Numbers are off slightly in that tweet. Assuming 2008 turnout, there are about 4 million left to vote. Assuming poll is right, however, it would be 51-45 Romney (or there abouts) with the remaining other or undecided.
can u do the math? it makes my head hurt. :)
I didn’t want to ask. I’m glad you did.
I’ll just post the last line in the article.
Mitt Romney will be the 45th President of the United States.
Okay, I broke down and did the math.
Although how CNN polled 1.4 million I don’t know.
This translates into 826K votes for the Communist already cast.
532K votes for the Capitalist Mitt Romney.
If the 51/44 split is true among the 4.4 million voters yet to show up, it will be, on election day, 1.936 million votes for the Communist and 2.244 million votes for the Capitalist.
Finally tally, using these assumptions:
2.762 million for the Communist
2.776 million for the Capitalist.
Too close, in my opinion. I want Mitt to win by a bigger margin to keep Holder’s thugs from “finding” votes or getting a judge to order the polls stay open for 48 more hours.
I did the math. It’s Romney by a razor thin margin (way beneath the polling margin of error).
I did the math and it scared me.
2.776 million Romney to 2.762 million for Obama.
Or if I follow the rules for number of significant digits from college classes that translates to a 2.8 million vote tie.
How do we know that? We just know that nominal democrats lead nominal republicans in early voting right?
LLS
We worked on low propensity voters here in Illinois and the strategy works. These are people who vote GOP, but don’t vote. Go figure.
FReepers - there are Victory Centers in every state. Even if Romney’s winning, we need to think down ticket and give him the most conservative Congress we can.
Please head out to a Victory Center and help call these LPV out to vote. Let’s win and win big!
What’s missing from Adrian’s post is that there haven’t been 1.4 million early and absentee votes cast yet; CNN is assuming EV/AB of about 25% already in, but the Secretary of State’s office is only reporting about 15% in so far. As typical for CNN/ORC, the results are accordingly highly suspect.
I mail my absentee ballot tomorrow. One more Ohio vote for Romney/Ryan.
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