Posted on 10/26/2012 9:32:26 PM PDT by smoothsailing
there two very important data points.
Dennis Kucinich lost
John Kasich won
Harding had a lousy Atty General according to “Boardwalk Empire”. ;)
I am having a very hard time reconciling ANY OH poll with the numbers from actual voting, not to mention the Indie breaks. If Indies are anywhere from 25-35% of the mix, and if Romney is leading by even 10, then he gains automatically 2.5-3.5% more vote. Then if R enthusiasm-—as almost every poll out there agrees-—is way up, and if Rs are even 35% of the electorate, Romney pulls a higher percentage of Rs than Zero does of Ds. Logically that is well over 50 by almost any math.
Interesting statitics about the voting shifts in Ohio since 2000.
I enjoyed the last part where he mentions the social issues and that they really are important to the conservative Catholic voters in Ohio.
I am in MN and am also a conservative Catholic voter. Among many reasons, a major one for voting against Obama is the HHS mandate. It infuriates me!!!
Unstoppable hotness right there. I’d hit it (and take all its money and run away).
LOL..... Well done
Dennis Kucinich lost in the primary to a much more powerful Dem, Marcy Kaptur from the Toldeo area. Their districts were redrawn last year. Unfortunately, the GOP challenger is “Joe the Plumber” who no one seriously thinks is going to win.
That congressional seat will remain blue for a long time. But... At least “Dennis!” is out of the picture.
Hopefully this is an indication of the train wreck headed for Obama and Dems in general.
This is because Harding ran for president against another Ohioian, James Cox, Democrat from Dayton. Cox's newspapers have evolved into the company we know as Cox Communications.
I believe this is the only time in history both presidential canidates were from the same state. Oddly they were both newspapers men too.
Yup—you may be able to drive from the DC line to the Cali state line without passing through an Obama state.
If Romney carries OR, he’s winning MN and maybe NM as well, which would put him at 355 or 360.
Official... well, I’ll just say that if everything breaks for Willard, that should be what the map looks like. If by chance he drops Ohio, he won’t even need it (all he’ll need is PA for a substitute, and if he gets MI & WI, won’t even need PA or OH... but if he gets MI & WI, he probably would’ve already carried one or both).
The big question remains how “Sandy” will (or won’t) change the equation this coming week.
MN is tricky for the GOP, it hasn’t voted GOP for President since 1972. NM is a fiasco. Heather Wilson’s Senate candidacy has been weak (she has consistently trailed) and she won’t go nuclear on Heinrich. We’ve got an even weaker candidate for NM-1 in Janice Arnold-Jones. Add in Gary Johnson to the mix and the GOP just isn’t bothering with the state (and given its 5 EVs, it’s not worth the trouble when the real action is in the Rust Belt). I expect Zero may get to at or below 50%. Johnson might get near 10%.
As for OR, that might be the real surprise of the night. If Willard carries it, it will be narrowly (say maybe 1 or 2%). I think he has a better shot with it than MN (or NM). But he won’t need it if he gets it, it’ll just be sauce for the goose. I’ve not seen any polling for WA state, so I kept it where it’s voted since the ‘80s. We also know Willard isn’t making a go for CA, though consideration still should be given to keeping (or perhaps improving) our standing in the House delegation.
I know that MN hasn’t voted Republican for president since Nixon’s reelection, but if Romney gets 52%-53% nationally (as seems more likely than not right now) I think that he’ll carry MN. MN gave President Bush 48% in 2004, while WI was giving him 49% and IA was giving him 50% (OR gave him 47%). I think there’s a good chance that IL will be the only Midwestern state to vote for Obama.
As for NM, there’s something very odd with the polls there. Romney is doing well with Hispanics nationally, and he’s winning indies by large margins, yet polls show him 10%+ behind in NM. I don’t buy it. While I think that it’s likelier than not that Obama wins NM, if the wave is so high that it sweeps in OR then there’s a decent chance that NM will get wash up as well.
I might’ve been too swift with my pronouncement on MN, you might very well be right. It will also be curious to see what the result is in IL. I don’t think it is out of the realm of impossibility that Zero carries only a dozen counties (even in winning in 2004, Kerry carried just 15, and McCain carried 56 to Zero’s 46 in 2008).
In 10 days, we shall know for sure.
There’s a rumor that when Mason-Dixon polled the voter-ID referendum in MN a few days ago for the Minneapolis (Red) Star-Tribune that it also polled the presidential race, and found Obama leading by only 47-44, If that’s true, then Romney is looking pretty good in MN.
I have to admit that is one sexy bank account.
I rank Harding very highly.
For the 20th Century there is Coolidge and Reagan in the lead, after that I could rate Harding as high as third. Taft and Ike (who was not a conservative but not bad compared to others,) being other guys in the mix. It’s the economy stupid. Everyone points to corruption in his administration, points off but big deal. You never hear about the massive corruption of Saint FDR.
Hoover/Nixon/Ford/Bushes were poop.
Was Hoover ever a rat? I thought he was just a progressive Republican.
You really must put the right percentages in (or turn off the different shading it’s darker for a higher percentage, there is toggle button to turn it off) cause you have the default 2008 percentages, Montana and Missouri under 50% for example and Obama over 60% in Cali and Illinois.
Not many states Obama can get over 60%. Hawaii (over 70 last time), Vermont, Rhode Island, probably. MA, MD, NY, ME-01 maybe. Certainly nothing else.
DC was over 90% probably will be again.
WA State, Ras poll from a couple weeks ago showed Osama up 55-42.
Big gubernatorial race and House race in CD-1.
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