That’s what I said. They are holding out hope for a EV win amidst a national vote loss.
Silver increased it to 74.89897 (decimal points added to sound scientific) or something ridiculous last night. Based on quote “tipping-point” polls from Ohio. LOL!
More than anyone, I will relish rubbing it in Silver’s face for weeks.
Does Silver actually believe what he is publishing? If so, I’ve never seen an election where each side is so sure of winning...
If Silver wants to save his reputation and future income prospects, he will need to fix his model or trash it completely by the end of next week. He has to be a little curious as to how Romney can be leading by 4 to 5 points nationally in Gallup and Rasmussen but is somehow losing the electoral vote according to his model.
His last post yesterday concluded with “...we may be approaching the point where the state polls will have to be systematically biased toward Mr. Obama in order for Mr. Romney to have strong chances of prevailing on Election Day”.
So maybe he is starting to wake up but may be worried at the same time that his worshippers have too much invested in him.
Nate Silver’s ridiculous 75% Obama win projection rests on the assumption that this year’s Democratic voter turnout will be exactly the same or better than 2008.
The fly in the ointment of course is Gallup has already projected an R+1 advantage for this election. If that’s true, there goes Silver’s credibility as a political analyst. It all rides on the conventional wisdom MSM being true.
I don’t think it will be and Gallup and Barone both think the odds favor Romney. So Silver still has time to revisit this crazy scenario he’s postulating and the only people who agree him are on Intrade - which still puts Obama’s chance of being re-elected at 63.6%. We’ll know soon enough who are the real outliers in this election.