[InterceptPoint]

For example, let’s assume that a unweighted average for the five R-leaning states gives a R advantage of 58-to-42.

But that's the problem. Romney doesn't have leads anything close to 58-42 in the states he is winning. If he did I wouldn't be posing the question.

Your analysis is OK. But the required Romney margins are jut unrealistic.

[Hawthorn]

>> Romney doesn’t have leads anything close to 58-42 in the states he is winning <<

I don’t necessarily dispute your point. Maybe the leads aren’t there. I just don’t know, because I haven’t bothered to dig up the latest survey data for each of the eleven states in question. But in my previous post, I just wanted to make the point that it’s not at all difficult to generate a set of numbers replicating Rasmussen’s bottom line.

In any case, if we assume truthfulness and reliability for Rasmussen’s methodology, there clearly has to be SOME combination of swing-state averages that will give Romney a six point advantage.

Therefore, if some energetic FReeper (not me!) has the time to dig thru all the data and run umpteen simulations, I’m pretty confident that he could discover a reasonable scenario to answer your original question, i.e., whether anybody can figure out a way to duplicate Rasmussen’s findings.