[Political Junkie Too]

With only one week left, can Romney drag the Senate over to Republicans? Time is running out.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Pinging the list.

-PJ

[bitt]

ping

[Darren McCarty]

Voted for Hoekstra here hoping for the upset.

[Darren McCarty]

Voted for Hoekstra here hoping for the upset.

[Mr. Jeeves]

In Florida, the race tightened again this week. Romney lost -1% to 50%, and Obama gained +2% to 48%. Florida downgrades from Strong to Leans for Romney.

Exactly what has happened to cause Obama to gain points in Florida this week? New York liberals moving down for the winter, and getting ready to vote a second time?

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races ranked roughly from the most to least likely GOP win. The rankings might change slightly as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls

 

10/27/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold OR Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
WI*	Tommy Thompson	Tammy Baldwin	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
AZ*	Jeff Flake	Richard Carmona	HOLD
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Connie Mack	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
CT*	Linda McMahon	Chris Murphy	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
MO	Todd Akin	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
MI	Pete Hoekstra	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
HI*	Linda Lingle	Mazie Hirono	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
*Open Seat          +Incumbent

 

[bigbob]

Good work, thanks. Of course, only as accurate as the polling data...

[justiceseeker93]

I'd start off giving Romney 180 EVs from the states that McCain won in '08. There is absolutely no evidence that Obama can win any of them at all.

So Romney needs 90 EVs from states that Obama won in '08 to reach the magic 270. It's conventional wisdom now that he wins Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), and Indiana (11). That totals 68, so he needs 22 more from the list of states still in doubt. With toss-up Ohio (18), he needs only four more which he could get with little New New Hampshire (4) or any other toss-up state. But even without Ohio, there are several possible combinations of three or four states that add up to the 22 he needs. Since he has a fairly decent shot in Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire, and Nevada and there is a possibility he could even get a surprise win in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oregon or Minnesota, I'd say that the odds of a Romney electoral college win nationally are better than the 44.18% that you indicate.

Dick Morris is thinking pretty much along the same lines, even more bullish on Romney's chances.

BTW, it is statistically very highly unlikely that a three-point leader in the national popular vote (which R0omney has now pretty much maintained for a week in Rasmussen and even Gallup) can lose the electoral college.