Posted on 10/27/2012 5:20:54 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Back in 2008 Candidate Obama beat Candidate McCain in NC by 14,177 total votes. During early voting Candidate Obama saw about a 22% Democratic participation rate advantage over Candidate McCain. When all the voting was over in 2008 Candidate Obama won NC by about 0.32% over McCain.
Obama received 2,142,651 total votes (49.70%) McCain received 2,128,474 total votes (49.38%)
As a baseline, NC voter registration back in 2008 on election day was:
Dem: 2,849,979 (46%) Rep: 1,949,494 (32%) Una: 1,385,487 (22%) Lib: <1%
As of yesterday (26 Oct 2012) NC voter registration is:
Dem: 2,849,683 (43%) Rep: 2,040,552 (31%) Una: 1,697,674 (26%) Lib: <1%
With the 2008 & 2012 voter registration baselines established above we need to look at early voting numbers in 2008 and compare that to 2012.
At this time four years ago (9 days of early voting) Democrats made up just over 55% of all early votes while Republicans made up about 28% and Unaffiliated voters made up about 17%.
The chart below shows the 2008 daily voting totals through the first nine (9) days of early voting.
So far in 2012, NC has completed nine (9) of seventeen (17) days of early voting. Democrats make up just shy of 50% of all early votes received as of yesterday with Republicans making up about 31% and Unaffiliated voters making up about 19%.
The chart below shows the 2012 daily voting totals through the first (9) days of early voting.
To summarize the two charts above I created a third chart summarizing the first nine (9) days of early voting. The chart below compares 2008 to 2012. It is clear that in 2012 voting has increased for Democrats, Republicans and Unaffiliated voters.
Looking at the summary chart above it appears NC early voting enthusiasm in 2012 has increased more for the Republican and Unaffiliated registered voters compared to Democrat registered voters. Raw number-wise however, registered Democrat voters hold the lead for the total number of early votes cast.
What do you all think this 2012 early pattern means for NC?
Tell me what you think when you get some time.
I live in NC and Obama has no chance in this state. Romney will win comfortably.
I attribute the increase of RATs in this year’s vote a those that sat out last time, and are alarmed at how things worked out. More democrats are abandoning their party this year than Republicans. So yeah, I say NC is safely in the win column ...
I agree, he has no chance, none, nada, zip, zero, zilch, nil...
Oh, and I was one of those early voters here in NC....
We know that 2,000+ are over the age of 112.
Looks like vote early and vote often is out in full force.
NC is going GOP.
It is a safe bet that 20-5% of the Democrat vote is not a vote for The Disaster.
Romney probably wins NC. Obama’s still cranking out ads here, though.
I sure hope the polls are not only right for R/R but that they also translate into actual counted votes for R/R. However - following is part of something on vote fraud I just posted on the thread about vote fraud in Ohio:
(Speaking of fraud, have you heard recently in North Carolina some angry voters who cast ballots for Romney and then when finishing up their vote, noticed that their vote had been CHANGED to be for 0bama - ooops.
And what did the election official say about that - oh no problem, just reset the machine and all will be ok. Then I heard a day or so later that IT HAPPENED AGAIN ! OOOOOPS. I mean, can you even trust what is going INTO the machines, much less what they SAY is coming out ~ )
(Sounds like a stupid pgmming bug where the programmer of the code changed the VOTE from R to 0 - but forgot to LEAVE ROMNEY ON THE SCREEN when the code had changed the vote to 0 - tsk.
I am still hoping R/R pulls it out in NC! but looks like *they* are trying awfully hard - cheating in every little possible way they can. Following is something I just came across in catching up on news:
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October 26, 2012
Mental Hospital Voter Sign-Up Questioned
By Don Carrington
RALEIGH — Cherry Hospital, a state-run adult inpatient psychiatric facility in Goldsboro, welcomed a federally funded nonprofit organization to conduct a voter registration drive of mental patients, likely a violation of state law. Moreover, a memo from a hospital administrator indicated the nonprofit, Disability Rights North Carolina, assisted patients in completing absentee ballots, which may have been illegal as well.
It’s hard for working people to go vote early. Not so much for those not working. Hopefully a lot of those unemployed are sick of obama.
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