Romney maintains his 50% number with about a week to go. Obama approval still at 47/52 (-5). The strong index is back up to -12. The strong disapproval holds at 43 – that is not good for an incumbent.
Obama is barely at 47% (46.67 to be exact – see below).
Overall, according to math, Romney lost less than a half a point (50.47 to 50.08). And Obama gained a little more than a half (45.89 to 46.67). No big change.
The sample is D+3 (39/35/25). The pctg of each party id is based on Rasmussen’s crosstabs of each candidate’s support.
10/27
Romney
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (50%)
Obama
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (46%)
10/28
Romney
Repubs 90% * .36 = 32.4
Dems 12% * .39 = 4.68
Indies 52% * .25 =13
Total = 50.08 (50%)
Obama
Dems 86% * .39 = 33.54
Repubs 8% * .36 = 2.88
Indies 25% * .25 = 10.25
Total = 46.67 (47%)
Thanks, that kinda answers my question - and poses new ones.
On one hand, who really thinks Romney lost 6% of Independents overnight?
On the other, I’d like to believe that Obama’s support amongst Independents dropped 10% overnight, but where did it go? Back to “Undecided” I guess, since Romney’s numbers didn’t go up proportionally.
I think I’ll leave poll-analysis to your guys!
Something looks odd:
10/27 Obama
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (46%)
10/28 Obama
Indies 25% * .25 = 10.25
Total = 46.67 (47%)
35% = 8.75 but then 25% = 10.25. Did the sample size change? The other figures did not change. Just looks odd.
NHWingUT,
Just superb analysis from you! Simply superb, the breakdown you give on Rasmussen
Again, I do believe Scott is an honorable guy and as the President of Rasmussen Reports and a well respected analyst, he is fully entitled to his (well earned) opinion about the D+3 sample
However, by providing us with these internals, you allow those of us that think the election will be D+1 at best, to better formulate our numbers
Keep up the good work for the next 9 days. We are counting on you!
God Bless!