Virtual tie in … Minnesota?

Hot Air ^ | October 28,2012 | Ed Morrissey

[Hojczyk]

As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.

The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent — a lead within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat’s advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.

Independents, on the other hand, are leaning more toward Obama. Barely a third supported him last month, but that number has grown to 43 percent. Romney’s support among independents remains virtually unchanged, with 13 percent of that group remaining undecided.

Bear in mind that this is the Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll, which has a long and (un)glorious history of leftward tilt. Mitch Berg has long documented this trend. One has to wonder whether we’ll need to send paramedics to his house this morning after he reads Rachel Stassen=Berger’s report from the survey.

Snark aside, this looks like a relatively solid poll. The sample is D+5, with a D/R/I of 38/33/29. In 2008 when Obama won by 10 points, it was D+4 at 40/36/22, and I suspect that Republicans are going to be more motivated this time around. Obama wins the core counties in the Twin Cities, but only by a relatively weak 57/35. Romney wins the Metro suburbs with a majority 51/39 and edges Obama 46/44 in the rest of the state.

[goldstategop]

I agree - MN has not been carried by a GOP presidential since Richard Nixon took it in his 1972 landslide. This year may different and Obama is behind there which indicates his Blue State firewall isn’t holding.

[shelterguy]

You NEVER see a hussein yard sign here. Last time there were hundreds, they were everywhere.

[YukonGreen]

Even if MN went for Romney, our Secretary of State Mark Ritchie would find a crooked way to make a win for Obama. He did it with Coleman and Franken won after recount and finding ballets in a trunk of a car.

[goldstategop]

I think it’ll be close. The only way Romney wins MN is if O’s national numbers begin tanking.

[pabianice]

The polls are still using a D+5 - D+7 sample. The polls are bullshit. Romney is on the way to a landslide.

[Gideon7]

Mark Ritchie was the former head of ACORN in Minnesota. Talk about the fox in the henhouse. He was funded by the Soros SOS Project.

MN used to have a reputation for clean elections. Nowdays not so much.

[stevem]

My guess is this doesn’t take into account the 30,000 to 50,000 voters from the Chicago graveyards that manage to materialize every national or statewide election in Minnesota.

[The Great RJ]

I am sure there are ballot boxes already stuffed with Obama ballots ready to be “found” if the election is close in Minnesota. That’s how Al Franken won the US Senate seat in MN. When Norm Coleman was narrowly ahead in a recount, boxes of ballots were suddenly “found” by election officials with all of the ballots conveniently for Franken.

[DJ Taylor]

With this going on in Minnesota and other states, I don't think anyone knows where this election is going to end up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=GqMVxeZhflI&feature=player_embedded