The only reason the Mass Media is hyping OH is it is the only place they can manufacture any good news for O. O can win OH, lose CO and WI (both likely) and lose the election
Romney can lose OH and win if he gets WI, CO and one other state, even one as small as NH. I believe Romney should focus on those 3 states much more than OH. The polls seem to be more favorable to him in NH and CO, and WI should give him a unique advantage thanks to Paul Ryan and Scott Walker’s recent success.
Obama has an unusual card to play in OH, the auto bailout. That’s why OH could diverge from the trend of going with the winner even though it’s done so in the past 40 years every time.
NV is the only other state that goes with the winner as often as OH, having done so for the past 30 years. But even that state could flip to the other side this time due to changing demographics. I wouldn’t rely on historical trends. Times change.