I think Obama put an extreme focus on Ohio because they knew if Kerry had just flipped Ohio in 2004, he would’ve won the electoral college with more EVs than Bush.
Romney has 248 EVs if he wins VA, NC and FL. Let’s look at what he needs out of the remaining 8 swing states to win, starting from the biggest prize and working down the list. I’ll count all the Obama and Romney-leaning states as wins for their candidate.
Swing states:
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (18)
Michigan (16)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Winning OH gets him 266. He needs any one of the other 7 remaining swing states to win, the smallest being NH.
Winning PA puts him in the same position at 268 of needing one more state.
Winning MI puts him in almost the same position, except NH wouldn’t be enough to put him over the top then, he’d need any one of the other bigger states.
Winning WI gives him 258 EVs. He needs 12 more EVs to win. It could be CO and any one of NH, IA or NV, or it could just be IA and NV.
If he misses all those bigger states, then he needs all 4 of CO, IA, NV and NH to win outright. He could lose NH in that scenario and still tie, which would guarantee him the win in the tie-breaking House vote, but possibly allow the Senate to elect Biden as V.P.
I see Romney winning seven of those eight states.
If it were a tie, the RATs would make Obama VP - he would then preside over the Senate as well. He will no go willingly ...