IBD Daily: O 45.4, R 44.1, O +1.3% (IBD tightens up!)

Investor's Business Daily ^

[MeanGreen2008]

Obama holds a slender lead, but in statistical terms it is now a dead heat.

Midwest swing states very much in play: In recent days Romney's underlying support has firmed, particularly in the Midwest, where he has trailed for much of the last month but now is tied with Obama.

Since the first two days of our poll, Obama has pretty consistently maintained a 46% to 47% reading. In the most recent poll, which is a moving average that represents trends from more than one day, his support has weakened by 1.2 percentage points.

Obama shows noticeably weaker results among those aged 18-44, blacks, urban dwellers and those with college degrees.

[princeofdarkness]

Ha! Still +7 Dem. In other words Romney is ahead.

[johncocktoasten]

This poll is a joke. 10% still undecided is laughable and deviates highly from anything other tracking poll available for public consumption.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: IBD Daily: O 45.4, R 44.1

So, according to IBD, 11% or so are still undecided this late in the game??

How can I believe his poll!!

[MNJohnnie]

Polling period: 10/22 - 10/27 Margin of Error: +/- 3.5% Sample Size: 942 likely voters (identified from 1091 registered voters with party affiliation of 38% Dem, 31% GOP, 32% Ind.) Methodology: Traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples

Basically tied with a +7 Dem sample spells deep trouble for Team 0.

[NittanyLion]

The way I see it, this poll represents how Romney would fare if the electorate looked exactly like it did in 2008. In other words there's no chance Romney will underperform this because no one can deny that 2008 was the high water mark for Obama. This is worst-case scenario for Mitt.

And yet he's down only 1 with 11% undecided.

[snarkytart]

You shouldn’t and they were #15 on the list of accuracy in the final poll of 2008. List out of 20.

Most national polls have Romney ahead.

[KC_Conspirator]

You have that right. (Btw, hilarious screen name...)

[Steelfish]

The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters shows the president ahead — 47 percent to 46 percent.

But Gallup is still the gold standard.

[Arthurio]

Reuters/Ipsos is an Internet poll.

[Quick Shot]

I also believe there is some poll giving bias.
Here ar work have done a little informal survey of black voters. When discussing one on one (me white, him black) Obama is less than 50%. If I ask 3 or 4 at the same time it is 100% Obama.

The employee may be telling me what I want to hear, but I think it is more that they don't want to express their true opinion to be called racist of their own race. Believe this is happening through out the polls.

[lgwdnbdgr]

GOP turnout was 32% in 2008. They are modeling 31%. They are predicting GOP turnout will be lower than it was in 2008 and only three points higher than 1980, right in the wake of Watergate. I’m surprised with that assumption that Obama is only up a little more than 1%.

[Lacey2]

I don’t thinbk there is any doubt about voters being afraid to publically express disleasure with Obama. The PC police have done their jobs well.

It wll be a different story once these people pull the curtain in the voting booth.

[johniegrad]

Obama shows noticeably weaker results among those aged 18-44, blacks, urban dwellers and those with college degrees.

Forget the numbers and the break down of the sampling. THIS is the real take home message from this poll!!

[Gay State Conservative]

A week out...and 3.75 years into his term..and Osama’s still at 45%. I think I've read that “late deciders” break 75-25 for the challenger.Does anyone have authoritative stats on this question?

[wolfman23601]

The key number is 0bama at 45%. This poll is obviously not counting leaners or something. Count leaners and you are probably right around R 50 O 47 like everyone else.

[nhwingut]

And you are the gold standard of trolls.

[nhwingut]

This poll does not include liklies or leaners. Romney leads Indies by almost 10.

Furthermore, it’s a laughable D+7.

Here is the IBD/TIP poll with their crosstab data (Romney 88R/7D/46I; Obama 86D/4R/38U) using Gallup’s anticipated party id of D35/R36/I29.

IBD
Romney
Repubs 88% * .36 = 31.68
Dems 7% * .35 = 2.45
Indies 46% * .29 = 13.34
Total = 47.47

Obama
Dems 86% * .35 = 30.1
Repubs 4% * .36 = 1.44
Indies 38% * .29 = 11.02
Total = 42.56

Romney up 4.91. Enough said.

[Paradox]

A week out...and 3.75 years into his term..and Osama’s still at 45%. I think I've read that “late deciders” break 75-25 for the challenger.Does anyone have authoritative stats on this question?

Dick Morris likes to put that out there, not sure where he got that from, but I do know that recently, Gallup asked the undecided that if they HAD to vote for someone, who would they vote for, and it was 2:1 for Romeny (66%)... so take that for what its worth.