Regardless of the top line head-to-head, this race is moving strongly in Romney’s direction. It started late September, picked up steam after Debate #1. Slowed a little after Debate#2. But after Debate#3 is cooked in, Romney is moving again in a positive direction.
Biggest signs that this will not be close on Nov 6th :
1) Romney leads Independents by 15 points in RCP average (O won them by 8 in 2008)
2) Obama’s favorabilities are significantly dropping in every major tracking poll (even this lefty PPP poll)
The reason the top line numbers are all over, is the D/R/I splits the pollsters are using. And we know that Gallup increased the minority weighting back in September (which is helping Obama).
I don’t study the figures all that closely. I figure it is what it is.
We must never get complacent about what the polls say, though—we must fight until it’s over.
—and praying wouldn’t hurt, either.......