As of 10/27, 1.6 million voters have requested absentee ballots. 1 million have submitted ballots/early voted in toto. I expect turnout to be 5.6 to 5.7 million. Others may disagree. So 1/5.6 is 18%. 1.6/5.6 is 28.5%. So both numbers are less than the 32% who told rasmussen they VOTED. 1.6 million are ABOUT TO VOTE of which 1 million have actually VOTED. Key distinction.
Good, then I was more or less correct. Sure, the turnout is not known, but only 3.2 millions or so is a bit on the low side (to get 1 million = 32%). :-)
I did a back of the envelope calculation of the state of the race if one corrected Ras poll for the oversampling of early voters (eg ca 19% assuming 1 million of expected 5.4 millions). The outcome was R 53% - O 45%.
O’s figure is lower than the 47% we all know is the true one, so this is of course an overestimation of Romney’s lead.
:-)