It's amazing. All the hard evidence says Zero is so far behind his early vote # s that he has already lost OHZ, perhaps big. Yet you people keep looking at polls.
Absentee % point to big R win. D's up n absolute # s but so far behind 08 they can't make it up on Election Day.
You keep me sane, Larry. Thank God you are here to counteract the ubiquitous chicken littles.
question: on what basis do they know the results of early voting? is it an assumption based upon party affiliation? i’ll take that.
Once again, chicken littles look at polls---AN ESTIMATE BASED ON WHAT ONLY 9% OF THE PEOPLE CONTACTED SAY THEY WILL DO IN THE FUTURE--- rather than #s of votes cast---HARD EVIDENCE OF ACTS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
With some rare exceptions (see below) political polls are increasingly crap. They are a segment of a segment of a segment and they lean Dem not because the numbers are ginned, but because when you have to call about 10,000 people to get 900 people to talk to you, and then screen them for likely voters and reduce your poll even further, pretty soon it's to your advantage to take the pool you can get instead of the pool you would construct if you had unlimited funds. If that pool is skewed Dem, c'est la vie.
What amazes me is that the folks who panic because one poll or another says one thing or another also ignore the polls that people like Gallup and Rasmussen are doing that show Republican ID at it's highest point in years. If the polls are all crap, we should ignore the polls. If the polls are not crap, then we need to be asking why we're ignoring polls that show many, many people abandoning the party of Obama for the party of Romney. We also see people who panic over polls doing things like believing a CBS poll that not only oversampled Dems by more than their turnout has ever been in the states they surveyed, it undersampled Indies to HALF of their turnout in 2004 and 2008. Really, half the independents in three vital swing states are going to stay home on Tuesday?
My belief is that this thing is a mixed bag. Some polls are off, but are far more reliable than others; I would put Ras and Gallup in that group. But as important as polling is, the actual vote/request data is more important, and common sense is more important. Common sense tells us, for example, that virtually none of the Republicans who voted for Obama will do so this time. That means Barry has to turn out MORE Dems than he did last time when they thought he was a god walking the Earth.
It's time to calm down and work hard. Panic is for fools even when the situation is dire. Well, it ain't dire. We're winning.