Thanks — I saw all the splits at the roanoke.edu site but they didn’t identify the partisan breakdown as far as I could tell.
If it really is D+4 and still shows Allen and Romney winning by as much as the poll refelcts, that’s fantastic but still enough of an outlier compared to other polls (even allegedly unbiased ones like Rasmussen) that a huge grain of salt must be taken.
All the internals reported, including party affiliation, are in the pdf from the college describing the actual results. They report D/R/I/Other (never saw that last column before of 35/31/29/4. Myself, I'da lumped independent in with other.
I don't think this is such an outlier. It's a late poll and is likely catching the movement toward Gov. Romney. This is backed up by the polls own internals showing that undecideds are moving pretty strongly in his direction.
Common sense suggests that the Quinnipiac poll is the outlier. Q has a reputation as being a hack organization. I've been following their polls for a long time - always biased. But concerning this poll specifically, it's a D+7 poll. Worse, it's an admitted PUSH POLL, asking nine leading questions favoring the anti-Christ BEFORE getting to the “who would you vote for?” question. Gee whiz! Why bother? Even still, after all that huffing and puffing, they only get to a 2% advantage for the Kenyan.
Common sense suggests ignoring products from the Wash Post/ABC folks. They don't even pretend.
Methodology matters.
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