Posted on 10/31/2012 7:08:54 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
What can we glean from the early voting to this point in key swing states? Unfortunately for prognosticators, not much. Still, looking at voting trends thus far in several swing states and comparing those numbers with the 2008 early-voting numbers offers a glimpse into which way this year's voters lean. And while states don't report early-vote tallies for President Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, many states do make voters register for a party when voting. Registration information is a useful indication of the which way the early electorate is voting.
Below, "Total Votes Cast" represents the number of early mail-in and in-person votes reported as of Tuesday. "Party Registration Breakdown" shows the party affiliation of these early voters in states where that information is available. The "Analysis" section compares these two categories to their 2008 early-voting counterparts.
These numbers are updated as of Oct. 30 and will be updated each day with new information. Early voting will continue up until several days prior to the election in some states.
Total Votes Cast: 965,510
Party Registration Breakdown: Democratic 35.6%, Republican 38.4%, None/Other 26.0%
Analysis: In 2008, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by a 1.8 percentage point margin and Obama won the state by 8.9 percentage points. In 2012, the 2.5 percentage point advantage for registered Republicans indicates the state will be more closely contested than '08.
Total Votes Cast: 2,223,840
Party Registration Breakdown: Democratic 42.4%, Republican 41.0%, None/Other 16.6%
Analysis: Republicans usually win mail-in early ballots by a wide margin in Florida — 12 points or higher — according to Michael McDonald, who oversees the United States Election Project at George Mason University. Democrats have closed the gap through in-person early voting.
Total Votes Cast: 497,725
Party Registration Breakdown: Democratic 44.2%, Republican 32.1%, None/Other 23.7%
Analysis: Romney has slightly narrowed the strong lead the Democrats built — 18 percentage points — in 2008 early Iowa voting. But Obama went on to win the state by 9.5 percentage points in ’08, meaning Romney will still need very strong Election Day results to take the state.
Total Votes Cast: 432,748
Party Registration Breakdown: Democratic 45.2%, Republican 37.0%, None/Other 17.8%
Analysis: According to McDonald, Nevada’s 2012 early electorate closely resembles the state’s 2008 electorate. Obama won the state by 12.2 percentage points in 2008, and early indications are he’ll win it again in 2012.
Total Votes Cast: 1,700,128
Party Registration Breakdown: Democratic 49.2%, Republican 31.2%, None/Other 19.6%
Analysis: At this point in 2008, Democrats had a crushing lead among early voters — 55.9 percent to 27.2 percent — and Obama only narrowly won the state by 0.3 percentage points. Romney has closed that gap enough that the latest data indicate a small lead for him in the state.
Total Votes Cast: 1,006,398
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Most urban, Democratic-leaning counties are on pace to exceed 2008 early-voting levels. But so are Republican-leaning rural counties. This indicates that Ohio will be a tightly contested race, as predicted.
Total Votes Cast: 254,074
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Early 2012 voting in Virginia has skewed heavily toward females and the 60-plus demographic. Unlike 2008, the state is allowing in-person early voting in addition to early ballots by mail, meaning early-vote totals will likely exceed ’08’s total of 336,743.
Total Votes Cast: 101,253 (in-person only)
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Wisconsin does not have comparable statistics from 2008, so little can be determined about which way the state is leaning in 2012 as compared to the 2008 election.
I don’t come away from this analysis feeling overwhelmingly confident. On the other hand Gallup’s numbers on early voting paints a much different picture.
that’s what I was thinking. This seems to make it look like Obama’s going to win all these. Is this all accurate?
Another thing- how many of those "registered Democrats" registered Democrat in 2008 during Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos"?
I see Romney winning by 10-15 points. My hope is that it'd be 20-30, with all the Senate elections going to Republicans, and the House becoming 2/3 Republican.
Maybe I’m missing something but if Romney has a 15% advantage w/ independents then I don’t see how Obama has an advantage if Ds are only at ‘08 levels b/c once you divide up the independents and +15 for Romney, there are more Romney voters than Obama voters.
Is this an incorrect way to look at this data?
Thoughts? This doesn’t look too positive to me...
looks like another Obama landslide. We shall see I guess
Remember, McDonald is the guy at GMU who tried to dismiss our absentee voting #s. You CANNOT know what the early vote means unless you can cull out the absentee numbers.
CO/NC look good.
IA is on a knife’s edge. All here depends with indies. They outvoted us percentage wise in early voting in 08, 47 to 29. That has shrunk as of today 43.7 to 32.2 dems to repubs. But that margin of voters is 60,000. We still I think need to do a little better but Tim Miller, RNC guy on twitter, has been tracking this compared to 04. It matches closely to what was going on at the same time in 04.
NV: McDonald is out and out lying. Clark 08(Vegas): Dems 51%, Reps 30%; Washoe 08 (Reno): Dems 47% Reps 35%
2012 Washoe tied and Clark is much closer (I’m trying to get that exact percentage this morning). Follow Ralston on twitter (LV sun newsie) - lib but gives u straight numbers. He has the skinny on Early voting there.
NV for me all comes down to washoe: whoever wins washoe wins the state. Right now basically tied.
Hope that helps.
According to Gallup, early voting nationally is going to Romney 52% to 45%. The trends still favor Romney and I would not get too emeshed in early voting. Generally, Rep early voting is much higher in 2012 than 2008. The enthusiasm factor is on our side.
Second, D/R numbers make up 65% or more of the electorate, but I numbers make up a big, big chunk. If they are voting R, that offsets a huge amount of D advantage.
Third, I just don't trust anything McDonald says. He basically lied about what the Ohio absentees said.
Fourth, in the case of OH does this INCLUDE absentees?
Oh please.
Go run your little act back to whatever dem hole you walked out of.
So we know a LOT of "party registration," and it ain't pretty for the Ds.
McDonald is a little slimy when it comes to OH, because the Ds are down percentage wise ACROSS THE BOARD from 08. Not enough to say they are "performing in urban counties. Well, no. They did ok in Cuyahoga (down only about 60,000 from 08) and Montgomery, but so did the Rs. Rs actually GAINED 4,000 net votes in Cuyahoga from 08 and gained in Montgomery Co. as well. In other urbanesque counties, the flip was enormous---25 points in the case of Franklin, 6 points or more in Hamilton.
Today I will have the # of U absentees, which McDonald's chart does not provide, for Montgomery County. We can then determine what the % change really was from 08 to 2012.
I think the Iowa percentages are wrong. There are more registered Republicans than Democrats. I live in Iowa and I can tell you I think we will go Red.
You might want to check my link in #8 to settle u about FL.
“Maybe I’m missing something but if Romney has a 15% advantage w/ independents then I don’t see how Obama has an advantage if Ds are only at ‘08 levels b/c once you divide up the independents and +15 for Romney, there are more Romney voters than Obama voters.”
Good, I’m glad I’m not the only one who has noticed this too.
Agreed. I think what bolsters your theory is the number of liberal newspapers endorsing Romney. If a democrat-dominated editorial board recommends Romney, that would indicate that many democrats across the nation want a change.
Through yesterday, 10-30-12, Washoe looks awesome. RR down just 315 votes. Clark gap was about 21% in 2008, today down to 13%. Overall State just 6% Obama advantage. My brother-in-law works on the strip and tells me that numerous vans and buses are taking SEIU workers to the polls each day since early voting started. In my mind, the rats are shooting their wad early and may seriously lag behind on the election day turnout.
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