Why is everyone so convinced that ALL the polls—aside from a handful at Rasmussen and Gallup—are woefully inaccurate? What if they’re not fibbing and it turns out to be true?
no one is questioning accuracy...
it’s the methods that are being questioned.
Check out post 5
Why is everyone so convinced that ALL the polls—aside from a handful at Rasmussen and Gallup—are woefully inaccurate? What if they’re not fibbing and it turns out to be true?
Because we use our brain , read the hundreds of posts that explain why, look at county by county current votes, have experience from 2010 and see that Romney is leading every poll of people that have already voted. I have spent 150 hours coming to my educated guess what brings you to your conclusion?
If they are right then Obama is re-elected. It’s not difficult. 4 more years of Obama. Congratulations. The final tally, 51/48/1 but for who. I should add, the reason why people are suspicious is because of the sample. If you do a poll of 1000 people and 800 of them are democrats and Obama is winning democrats 90/10 then who do you suppose will do better in the poll? Do the same poll with 800 Republicans and Romney is winning them 90/10 then Romney will do better in the poll. That is what is being done by skewing samples (obviously on a much smaller scale). Get it? Good
Because Rasmussen is always dead on. And Gallup has picked the winner almost every time. Others seem to be meant to drive the media ratings higher, or give media outlets headlines that show Obama winning. Propaganda is one word for it.
All indications are that 0 is leading in the Electoral College today, and the national popular vote difference is within 2 points.
Early voting notwithstanding, Romney is behind and the race is tightening. If the election is held today, I think 0 will win...
Ummmm... I will happily take a Pew or Fox poll that has the race tied and incumbent well below 50%, and the GOP far more enthusiastic and likely to vote.
You think those kind of numbers are bad for Romney? Are you kidding?
The Obama enthusiasm just isn't there this time around. We remember how it was in 2008. It's not nearly the same in 2012. Hardly any bumper stickers or lawn signs. No huge crowds where Obama speaks (Romney has the crowds this time).
Because not only are most of these pollsters oversampling Democrats, they are inexplicably, using the 2008 turnout model, which won’t be the turnout for Barack Obama this election. In 2008, Obama had a lock on the Democrat vote, (today he is still trying to solidify his base) he had the Independent vote, (even the current skewed polls have Independents going to Romney) and he also had many Republicans, unhappy with McCain, that voted for him. (Those Republicans have since come home.) In fact, when Obama came into office, he had the support of 70% of the American people, however, a four-year record of his failed policies has all but erased that good will as the majority of those who voted for him in 2008, now have buyer’s remorse.
LLS
These polls, every one of them, mix in a superheavy dose of Democrats over Republicans---and that does not resemble OH in the slightest, esp. after 2009.
Here is the deal.
If the RAT turnout advantage on election day is +5% or higher, they win. Many pollsters are projecting them to have at least that big an advantage. Some are as high as +8 or +9%. Again, if it happens, they win, and that is why the polls show them doing so well.
Most of us are highly skeptical that turnout advantage will actually materialize though. Consider that in the wave election in 2008, the RATs only had around a +7 advantage. They are not nearly as excited now as they were back then.
Consider also that GOP voters are shown to be much more highly motivated, and that Indies are currently favoring Romney and Ryan by close to double digits in most polls. Add it all together, and the numbers showing Obambi with a solid lead just don’t seem to add up.
If the RAT advantage on election day is 3 or 4 points, then the race is a tossup. If their advantage is less than that, or even a GOP advantage like Gallup predicts, Romney will win. Period.
Because the numbers don’t make sense. In many, if no most, Romney is leading by double digits in independents, yet Obama is leading overall? Does not compute.
>>What if they’re not fibbing and it turns out to be true?<<
First of all, do you really think Obama thinks they’re true? I don’t. He wouldn’t be spending money where he is if he did. Second, you’re missing at least part of the issue: the polling that is over sampling D’s isn’t trying to be accurate; they’re trying to create the impression that the election really is close so 1) their voters will go to the polls and 2) they can scream “stolen” when they lose.
In 2009, I found that in order for Obama to win reelection, he would have to at the very least maintain the number of votes he got in 2008. There is NO WAY that happens. Had we ran an actual conservative candidate in 2008, Rs would have barely won or been barely defeated (possible 2000 like electoral victory either way). 2008 was the story of McCain, not Obama and this year there is no hiding that.
>>What if they’re not fibbing and it turns out to be true?<<
First of all, do you really think Obama thinks they’re true? I don’t. He wouldn’t be spending money where he is if he did. Second, you’re missing at least part of the issue: the polling that is over sampling D’s isn’t trying to be accurate; they’re trying to create the impression that the election really is close so 1) their voters will go to the polls and 2) they can scream “stolen” when they lose.
In 2009, I found that in order for Obama to win reelection, he would have to at the very least maintain the number of votes he got in 2008. There is NO WAY that happens. Had we ran an actual conservative candidate in 2008, Rs would have barely won or been barely defeated (possible 2000 like electoral victory either way). 2008 was the story of McCain, not Obama and this year there is no hiding that.
The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.
My tagline since September. You must look at the basis for the polls.
The numbers are not there for Obama this time.
HI, CA, IL, DC, PA(maybe), MD, DE, and NM(maybe) are going to go Obama.
That will be about it.
I think you are missing the point...These polls are only meant to manufacture opinion for Dems
It`s not whether it`s true or not, but that it is aired. Once aired it is hoped that the poll becomes reality, the masses eat it all up.
Fox record of polling is just terrible, their last pollster was Opinion Dynamics, they did the same thing in 2004 in their last poll for Fox///BTW I predicted that very thing prior to the poll as well.
Fox needs to get out of polling, they continue to have wool pulled over their eyes.
If it should be true, it will only mean that their efforts to manufacture opinion worked