[SoftwareEngineer]

COMMENTARY BY ENGINEER

Here we go! 5 days left.

This sample has 2 days of post Sandy polling. This data also (allegedly) has 2 days of polling where Rasmussen polled 1000 people daily instead of his usual 500

No internals are available yet, so we cannot calculate right now what the "D+" number is. When we last got internals, Rasmussen was using D+3

So, the race remains broadly stable, outside of statistical noise

I look forward to studying the internal data (along with nhwingut) when it is made available to analyze the internal trends

Here is what I am looking for in the internal data:

1. The lead the Governor has with Independents 2. His gender "gap" 3. Right Track/Wrong Track 4. Overall job approval and approval index 5. Number of Hispanics/Asians voting "R" 6. The percentage of the Republican base that the Governor is getting

More soon. Stay tuned!

[The Fop]

49% to 47% means 4% unaccounted for. Don’t Ras’s final polls always add up to at least 99% of the vote? Seems like someone would have to gain a few points by Tuesday morning. Has he ever put a final poll with this many voters unaccounted for?

[varmintman]

The Carville rule says that last number which Bork Obunga gets is all he’s ever going to get, i.e. the 47% which Romney himself said no Republican had any shot at. That basically says that we’ve got something like 47% of the electorate which isn’t really doing the gene pool any good.

[Cheerio]

Rasmussen Daily: THU 11/01: R:49 O:47 Obama -11: 5 DAYS TO GO!

Would this be the same Rasmussen that puts out a daily Pres Approval rating that looks like this?

10/31/2012 -11
10/31/2012 -11
10/30/2012 -13
10/29/2012 -12
10/28/2012 -12
10/27/2012 -10
10/26/2012 -12
10/25/2012 -12
10/24/2012 -12
10/23/2012 -16
10/22/2012 -16
10/21/2012 -16
10/20/2012 -16

I for one, am not counting my chickens before they hatch - after all the RAT party is known for their top notch abilities in "getting out the illegal" voters, and stealing elections AFTER the voting booths have closed.

[erod]

I wasn't around in 1980, but from my reading of history this election feels eerily familiar to something that happened in that time period. A very unpopular incumbent who had a big edge in early polling and was destined to win, then that lead got to be "too close to call" then on election day it was a landslide. Hmmmmm..... I forgot who those two candidates were:

Romney in a landslide, the MSM wants to spin reality, but it's not going to affect the outcome on Tuesday

[zt1053]

Has anyone seen the swing state poll?

[Jeff Head]

At this point, I'm thinking it's a 53% (Romney) to 46% (Obama) win, and maybe 54% to 45%, with a Romney electoral college total of around 310, maybe 315.

5 day to go before Fundamental Restoration returns to America!

The Trunaround of 2012
http://www.jeffhead.com/turnaround2012.htm

Here's my three Romney win scenarios.

Worst Case Romney Win:

Likely Case Romney Win:

Best Case Romney Win:

[SoftwareEngineer]

WOW!!
Sneak Peek from Rasmussen: Gov Romney up by 1 in IA!!!

R: 49 O:48

R+4 Sample of 750 LV

President up with early voters but the Governor HUGE with those still to vote

[Brown Deer]

Rasmussen Electoral College Breakdown

Romney 285
0bama 243

Safe Romney (167)
AK (3), AL (9), AR (6), GA (16), ID (4), IN (11), KS (6), KY (8), LA (8), MS (6), ND (3), NE (5), OK (7), SC (9), SD (3), TN (11), TX (38), UT (6), WV (5), WY (3)

Likely Romney (21)
Arizona (11): Romney 52%, 0bama 44% (October 25, 2012)
Missouri (10): Romney 54%, 0bama 43% (October 19, 2012)

Leans Romney (18)
Montana (3): Romney 53%, 0bama 45% (October 17, 2012)
North Carolina (15): Romney 52%, 0bama 46% (October 27, 2012)

Toss-up (95) - Romney 79, 0bama 6
Florida (29): Romney 50%, 0bama 48% (October 26, 2012)
Ohio (18): Romney 50%, 0bama 48% (October 29, 2012)
Virginia (13): Romney 50%, 0bama 48% (October 25, 2012)
Colorado (9): Romney 50%, 0bama 47% (November 01, 2012)
Iowa (6): Romney 49%, 0bama 48% (November 01, 2012)
New Hampshire (4): Romney 50%, 0bama 48% (October 24, 2012)
Wisconsin (10): 0bama 49%, Romney 49% (November 01, 2012)
Nevada (6): 0bama 50%, Romney 48% (October 24, 2012)

Leans 0bama (37)
Connecticut (7): 0bama 52%, Romney 45% (October 23, 2012)
Minnesota (10): 0bama 51%, Romney 46% (October 23, 2012)
Pennsylvania (20): 0bama 51%, Romney 46% (October 25, 2012)

Likely 0bama (28)
Michigan (16): 0bama 52%, Romney 45% (October 12, 2012)
New Mexico (5): 0bama 54%, Romney 43% (October 10, 2012)
Oregon (7)

Safe 0bama (172)
CA (55), DC (3), DE (3), HI (4), IL (20), MA (11), MD (10), ME (4), NJ (14), NY (29), RI (4), VT (3), WA (12)

[PapaNew]

Couple of questions:

1) Other than a way too favorable rating on Obama's four-year term, what does "D+" stand for?

2) Is there a RELIABLE and UNEMOTIONAL (right or left) prognosis on the electoral college? Some are pointing to stats that say Obama's got the 270 that he needs to win.