Actually there were a good bit of ANTI-ROMNEY ads early on... but Obama’s team figured they had it locked because they don’t have a clue about these states or the electorate in general.
Once they thought they had them won, and Mitt wasn’t fighting for them they stopped running ads.. in the mean time republican candidates accross these states kept fighting for election and found combinations of critiques and attacks that worked.
What worked? Simply tying a candidate to Obama and Pelosi worked! Why? because while rust belt states may be registered democrats, they are NOT raging liberals. They are mostly hard working folks who just believe everyone deserves a fair shake, many are dems out of historical reasons not ideological ones. When Obama declared war on their sensibilities... and religions.... and jobs they said enough is enough.
There is nothing different in the crap coming out of Obama’s mouth in 2012 than 2008, but in 2008 when you brough up the fact the guy said he wanted to destroy coal, miners in the Miners Union didn’t believe him.. now they have a 4 year record of destruction to know he did indeed mean it. 4 Years ago when it was pointed out Obama was in a radical anti-white church for 20 years, democrats said, get out of here, no one believes he believes any of that... now they know he does.
Obama took the blue collar white working class voters of the rust belt for granted, he kicked them in the teeth for 4 years and then just figured they’d come to the ballot box like they always do and pull the D lever... once Mitt withdrew they figured they didn’t need to work... Typical pattern for this guy actually.. talk a big game but when it comes to following through and doing the work... phone it in.
Obama will lose without question IA, OH and IN.. He will also lose at least 2 of the following PA, WI & MI.
MN and IL probably will hold but suprises have been known to happen, but I would classify them as safe.
what is going to be interesting to see is if this is a 1 election swing due to Obama, or if a long overdue re-alignment of the rust belt away from leftist democrats is occurring? The more radical and openly communist the Democrats go, the more likely we are looking at a fundamental realignment of the rust belt. And if that happens there will not be another democratic President for at least a generation.
Of those Michigan is the one which most surprises me. When I lived there I could not get over how the vast majority had totally bought into blue model union Democrat economics.
If Romney delivers on economic issues and fracking means PA will have industry again (like the ethane cracker planned in Beaver county and companies using its products), we could see a realignment. Democrats, of course, like Casey claim they are pro-coal and pro-fracking. Will the people buy it?
We may be witnessing a historic moment when hitherto instinctive Democrat voters permanently reject that party.
Regarding your last paragraph, this is exactly what happened with the Dixiecrats in the 1960s and was supposed to happen with the Reagan Democrats in the 1980s, but didn’t.
The future demographic realignment will happen along racial and ethnic lines. I expect that Texas and Arizona will be back in the D column within 20 years given the growth of the Hispanic communities there and their now solidifying alignment with the Democrats. Unless by some chance a Republican comes along and shows them the way to Conservatism and away from the identity politics demagaugery the Dems have been seeding them with.