Donnelly will win. I’m good friends with a Lugar staffer and many of their supporters, like it or not, are with Donnelly. Many people think he’s conservative enough and doesn’t freak them out like Murdock does.
Indiana is a conservative state, but it is not so far to the right that they are going to except some of what Murdock said and stood for, especially when Donnelly is conservative enough for them.
I lived in Indiana for some time, went to grad school at IU. Everything I’m hearing is Donnelly is going to win because many Lugar supporters are not happy with Murdoch. Just the way it is.
In my Hoosier circles (decidedly right of center), Mourdock isn’t disliked because of the substance of his views, but more because of his inability to express those views in anything approaching an articulate or civl manner.