Posted on 11/02/2012 9:02:00 PM PDT by Arthurio
BY MARC CAPUTO MCAPUTO@MIAMIHERALD.COM
Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.
Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.
“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.
“Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”
Romney is winning handily among men, marginally losing with women voters and has outsized support among non-Hispanic whites. He’s essentially winning on the issues as well: the economy, Medicare, foreign policy and looking out for the middle-class.
Coker noted the poll results are essentially unchanged from last month, when Romney led by a point more after he crushed Obama in their first debate.
The October poll and this one, which have error margins of 3.5 percent, were conducted for The Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald as well as the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13.
Although the latest survey shows Romney comfortably ahead 51-45 percent in Florida, the Republican can’t rest easy. Other polls show a tighter race, although they use a different method of polling than that of Mason-Dixon, a Florida-based firm.
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/02/3080246/poll-mitt-romney-maintains-lead.html#storylink=cpy
(Excerpt) Read more at miamiherald.com ...
I guess the pollsters who pulled out of Florida were right after all.
I’m not so sure about NC though, I have seen lots of stories about “faulty” voting machines.
Some really good news tonight. Pennsylvania and Florida looking good. Romney’s huge Ohio crowd. Very good.
Florida is Romney/Ryan Country!
NC and FL will be fine. This is coming down to VA and OH. CO will be close, and combine that with IA or NH and there is some insurance in case we win OH but lose in VA. I think Obama has the edge in WI, but not out of reach. PA and MI are a bit of a stretch IMO unless there is a weekend Bengazi bombshell or Sandy goes sour.
Saw some video of Mitt and Ann Romney at the Ohio rally tonight. They had the look of winners. Not the slumped shoulders and forced "Jerry Sandusky" smiles that John McCain had four years ago at this time as he went through the motions of his final rallies.
Evidently Mitt's team had some very good news for him today with respect to the internals.
How is PA looking good? I couldnt find anything except a 3 week old poll by an unknown outfit.
Check out breaking news. Romney leading by 4 in Pennsylvania.
That Poll Pick the Senate 2010 Election on the nose and was very close in the 2008 Presidential election
Marist has O up 2 in FL (and up 6 in OH). but with huge D+ samples. OH sample is D+9, double 2008. Their pollster claiming their poll more accurate than Mason Dixon (larger sample size).
Check out breaking news. Romney leading by 4 in Pennsylvania.
_________________________________
Poll released tonight. They are a very reliable group.
Wow, missed that. Id feel a little better if Ras didn’t have O+6 in PA, but at least there is some hope.
CNN immediately tweets the Marist results, ignoring Mason Dixon. LOL.
I am very confident Romney is going to win it all. But some pollsters going some splaining to do come Wednesday.
Things are looking awsome!
I think this is for real and that’s why Romney has focused resources on Pennsylvania. Even the NYT’s admitted today that Romney is doing pretty good in Pennsylvania.
No fear about NC - blowout by 300 thousand votes. My wife ran across a minor irregularity and R/R attorney was at our door within the hour. He says they have had relatively little trouble in NC, and have had enough monitors to handle them.
Mason Dixon actually uses voter registration lists to poll. I wonder if this fails to take into account Democrat voter fraud?
good to hear
Voter registration is tight in florida.
When the Dims get a load of a Romney landslide they are going to go nuts.
A few will probably start rioting. We can expect assassination plots. Self emulations. It may be on the scale of a Zombie Apocalypse. The rage will be like Sandy.
We must be prepared.
Here’s the other thing. Yesterday Romney announced he’d be campaigning in PA on Sunday. Now we know these campaigns shell out millions of dollars for the best pollsters.
When that was announced I thought... they know something we don’t. Then today THIS news about PA comes out. I think Romney may have a real shot there...
What’s Rasmussen’s record with state polling? We know he’s pretty accurate with the general election but state polling is a different monster.
Oh and if Romney was really 6 pts or more behind in PA I don’t think he’d be wasting one minute there this last week.
Not sure, but other than PA, his results are among the more favorable.
Obviously he thinks it is in play. Obama and his pollsters dont seem to think it is play. Someone is right and someone isnt. PA would be huge. Get that and VA and the election is over regardless of OH, WI, IA, or NH. Would be a huge steal. I also wonder if NJ may be winnable if half the state is still out of power and the NY media turning on the government.
Poll ping.
The final tally in Florida will be a blowout. I early voted yesterday and the lines of people are very long, very pro-Romney. Lots of Benghazi related signs, heavy presence of Jewish Republicans demonstrating on Obama’s treatment of Israel.
Expect Romney to take 53% of the FL vote at least. I hope it’s enough for some coattails. We need enough to pull Connie Mack over the finish line and knock out the Obama rubber stamp astronut, Bill Nelson. Locally we need Adam Hasner to win Allen West’s previous seat here in my district, and West to take the next seat north of us. He is in a bloody battle with a GOP convert to the donkeys. West is blasting with both barrels and should win.
All in all, FL will be very Red next week!
I don’t think R is gonna win PA with tbh. I do think he’s probably only down about 3 or 4 points. Enough to make him go for it.
I think this is gonna be a Romney landslide, although I’m still a Sarah fan.
Wow, that makes me breathe a little easier. Thanks for that piece of news.
CNN/MARIST is full of crap. Fortunately for them hardly anybody remembers the state polls after an election to hold them responsible for agenda driven polls.
What a good laugh this early morn!
Technically, everybody self-emulates.
Lee Miringoff, who runs the Marist Poll, is a leftie. According to Open Secrets, his wife, who is a sociology professor at uber liberal Vassar College, is also a leftie and a big Obama supporter.
Earlier:
“Poll: Romney up in key I-4 corridor in Florida”
“A new poll [Oct. 29, 2012] shows Mitt Romney holding the edge among voters in a key region of central Florida, which could help swing the critical battleground state.
A Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 survey released Sunday shows Romney winning 51 percent support to Obama’s 45 among registered voters along Florida’s I-4 corridor. .......”
The voting machines used in Durham don’t allow you to see how it registers your vote. You use a pencil to fill in the space and as you leave, it is put through the same machine everyone else uses in the polling location.
So who knows how it is calibrated.
Rasmussen is one of the best for national but not too good for state polls. His polling sample sizes are fairly small which leaves too much margin of error. However his state polling doesn’t lean one way or the other. In other words although not too occur accurate it is not biased. The Susq. poll is known to be quite accurate though.
I’ll tell you what, this liberal woman vote is really starting to tick me off.
They scream about being strong, independent, self-reliant women who don’t need men.
But when it’s time to vote, what do they do?
They go running for the protection of their sugar daddy. But what they don’t realize is that their sugar daddy is really a clever pimp who keeps them enslaved just as they keep minorities enslaved through socialist economics.
Disgusting.
“Self immolation, FRiend.
Technically, everybody self-emulates. “
I stand corrected. Spell check program can’t read my mind — yet.
Ping!
Ping!
yeah lol! but then again does the average lib even know how to use a gun of any kind? let alone know how to load it?
A well thought out analysis!
Sounds like some polls are reporting oBoma the Great is in trouble on Tuesday. Wonder how Obama will take it, if he is declared the loser?
I just posted this on another thread- but I’ll say it again. I’ve been working the phones here in the Orlando area for weeks...the closer we get- the better Romney is doing.
On my drive to work every day I drive through poor, middle class and wealthy neighborhoods..Romney signs are EVERYWHERE- across all economic groups. I have seen ONE Obama sign. EVERYWHERE I see cars with Romney stickers- very few O.
In 08 there were O signs EVERYWHERE.
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