Ignore the polls, watch the action and the rhetoric.
Obama and Romney are both playing on mostly BLUE state turf. Romney is running the sort of campaign winning camps run, optimistic, hopeful, bland. Obama is running the sort of campaign losers run, nasty, desperate and shrill.
Obama is not acting like a candidate whose internal polling is showing him winning.
I love looking at the poll internals so I can see what games the MSM is playing. The number tell me the CU profs are correct in their economic analysis.
However to your point, Yes seeing the body language of the candidates and where they are playing is very telling Obama and Biden are acting very angry, not like people who think they are winning.
Romney is acting like he knows he is going to win and already looking to reach out to unify the country, he is talking about the future instead of revenge like Obama.
The important about whether the election is a blowout of just a close win goes to mandate and the outcome of the Senate races. We could be looking at a +5-6 Senate seats, this is huge especially if we can get more conservative Senators like the Tea Party guys in office.