[Longbow1969]

This kind of wishful thinking, bunker mentality was our downfall in 2008. I don't think it is prudent to disregard Pew - it was one of the most accurate polls from 2008.

You are right, but people don't want objective right now. Folks just want to hear good news - and you can't really blame them 2 days from an election.

The reality is that Pew's election forecasts are almost dead on accurate. In 2004 they predicted Bush 51 Kerry 48 which was almost perfect. In 2008 they had it Obama 52 McCain 46 which was almost nearly right on the mark. This poll shows Obama winning narrowly. That, I suspect, will be the likely result Tuesday. Romney might still pull this out, but it looks like Obama just got too much of a bump from hurricane Sandy for Mitt to overcome.

[ubaldus]

YouGov just released a huge poll (http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/ygTabs_november_likelyvoters_National.pdf), showing O 48.5, R 46.5. In 2008 they were quite good as well.

So, the national polls and state polls appear to drift closer now.

[ubaldus]

YouGov just released a huge poll (http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/ygTabs_november_likelyvoters_National.pdf), showing O 48.5, R 46.5. In 2008 they were quite good as well.

So, the national polls and state polls appear to drift closer now.

[fortheDeclaration]

And I love how you guys ignore the other polls that state this is not going to be a +D election, such as Gallup.

Pew has overestimated the D turnout, pure and simple.

So, it is you and the other naysayers on FR who aren't being objective.

See you on the 7th so you can tell me how accurate Pew was.

[BookmanTheJanitor]

Do you think Pew is correct in assuming that there will be a 6.3 % turnout advantage for Democrats? ...and, if so, why?

[MNJohnnie]

The only wishful think here is coming from you two who simply ignore the math to cling to your Hate Romney Always sour grapes. Don't project what YOU two are doing on everyone else around here. You two simply tune out ALL facts that challenge your emotion based opinions. There is NO rational, logical reason for PEW to use a +6 Dem sample and to over sample both D and R to suppress the Indy vote impact on the polls. The only reason to inflate the Dem and GOP samples is to hide the fact the INDY vote is massively favorable to Romney. But rather then LISTEN to people who repeatedly explain the MATH to you two you, you both arrogantly accuse EVERYONE else of what YOUR TWO are doing.

You both mindlessly cling to your ignorant emotion based opinions in the face of ALL contradictory fact.

[MNJohnnie]

The reality is that Pew's election forecasts are almost dead on accurate

The reality is Rassmussen and PEW tied for accuracy in 2008. Yet you want to totally ignore the Rassmussen poll to loudly hype the supposed infallibility of the Pew poll. The fact that your opinions of PEW are based on a complete absence of ANY fact based evidence while the contrary opinions about PEW ARE BASED ON REAL MATH goes right over your head. They cannot both be right. One or the other is correct. The fact that you ignore the facts presented to cling to the emotional opinion is intellectually vacuous.