[snarkytart]

Silver got 2008 and 2012. Was he on the money in 2004 as well?

[jackmercer]

“Silver got 2008 and 2012. Was he on the money in 2004 as well?”

No, I’m including 2010. The final results for the generic ballot in 2010 was Republicans by +6.8. RealClearPolitics had their final forecast as Republicans +9.4:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

Nate Silver’s model had the final projection as Republicans +6.8....see the 16th paragraph here. He wasn’t even off by a tenth of a percentage point. That’s one hell of a model:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/01/agreeing-to-disagree-size-of-republican-wave-hard-to-predict/