Posted on 11/06/2012 6:53:26 AM PST by rlbedfor
Mitt Romney already has 697,143 votes before the polls opened a couple of hours ago, while Barack Obama only has 605,546, a difference of almost 92,000 votes. The data is time-stamped at 2:03 ET this morning, and the link on the front page of the site reads, “Early voters: How Ohio has voted.”
A few counties have not yet reported any early-voting results, but one county in particular looks huge. Cuyahoga, which includes Cleveland, should be a Democratic stronghold, and perhaps the one area where Democratic early-voting efforts should have produced their biggest lead. Instead, Romney has a lead of about 14,000 votes already, 127,570 to 113,373. In Hamilton County, where Cincinnati itself is located, Romney leads by over 5,000, 29,969 to 24,808. A quick scan of the data shows Romney leading in every county with more than 25,000 EVs.
This may be a very big deal, if these numbers are correct.
Admin please pull this thread ASAP.
Thank you.
They have not been counted yet, but we have reliable historical information on how counties vote, and what party a voter belongs to when they request an absentee ballot. For example, I live in Putnam County, which went 77% for Bush in 2004 and 70% for McCain in 2008. We know how many early votes were cast in Putnam County this year, so we have a pretty good idea of margins based on likely voting percentages.
The key takeaway is that Democrat heavy counties, like Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Franklin (Columbus) are showing significant declines in early voting over 2008, and GOP heavy counties (like Warren) are showing significant increases compared to 2008.
If Obama does not have a significant lead in early voting, he loses, period.
Great news! Romney only needs 270 Electoral College votes, so if he's at 25,000, then this has gots to be a done deal!!
This means a blowout in the making. Nate Silver will be very humiliated.
There’s been further updates. Gannett says it was dummy data that was accidently left up. This story is now dead. The 92k advantage is NOT true.
Sounds good, but what about that link’s totals?:
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/NEWS010601/311060015/?nclick_check=1
While the numbers—if true—are good for our team, I have to say that I don’t at all like this move to real-time voting. Let’s face it, with early voting and reporting of results that’s where we’re headed. I just think there’s too many bad things that can happen when results are reported early.
All of the big city counties, so far, with the exception of Montgomery (Dayton) have Romney in the lead. I’m assuming this is today’s vote.
I didn’t think they were allowed to display results yet. What’s that all about? Are these today, absentee, early voting????
The very small number in Montgomery leads me to think this is today’s voting. It’s about 3000ish, and Dayton is a very large metro area.
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/NEWS010601/311060015/?nclick_check=1
A lead in Athens county is huge news as is a lead in Cuyuhoga county. These numbers, too, make me think these are today’s numbers. Both those counties were HUGE Obama counties in 08, at 70%+ for Obama.
Landslide.
I remain very confident, because I anticipate 2004-style turnout on both sides, meaning we win. However, my sunny optimism is based entirely on our voters showing up, and it's always possible that the Lefty pollsters were right. :)
These are the Ohio counties to watch, where McCain lost to Obama by the following margins....
(245,467) Cuyahoga
(99,806) Franklin
(63,864) Lucas
(43,995) Summit
(32,017) Mahoning
(22,935) Trumbull
(22,688) Lorain
(20,940) Hamilton
(13,070) Montgomery
That was test data - the link was garbage.
There is good news for our side in the early voting data though, scroll up in the thread for my replies.
Do you have any evidence that these numbers are not accurate?
Drudge has been linking to the Gannett site for hours and the site is still up with no corrections or retractions.
It seems to me that a partial count of the early votes was leaked.
Hamilton Co went for obama in 2008.
I am pretty sure I read that, in general, 90+% of registered Ds vote D. Same thing for Rs voting R.
For the record, I’ve been a registered Democrat since 1988 (my first presidential election). I was Operation Chaos 20 years before Rush coined the term.
I love messing with their primaries.
Ah okay.
We were talking at work that Obama’s body language has been that he knows he will lose. Mitt projects that he thinks he will win.
We'll know in a few weeks one way or another (yes, I expect challenges to hold up the election).
“They pulled the link? They are SOOOOO worried that news will get out early that Obama is done. Panic about to hit the dems!”
The Rat Corrupt Media (the MSM), is all about coverups these days...wow! They sure are worried about their democrat colleagues down ticket...
Just the fact the person who posted the numbers said they were bogus and so did TonyInOhio (posting in this thread) who is there and knows the process and how things unfold in OH.
No votes have been counted yet. Absentee and early votes are not counted until the polls close, and the counting is done in each county. The data in the article was a test, as Gannett itself has printed. Disregard it!
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