Posted on 11/06/2012 11:27:59 AM PST by goldstategop
The internals tell us 99% of Republicans will vote for Romney but get this - 5% of Democrats will cross over and vote for Romney!
Every vote matters and Rush is right - if people get out there and vote they can hand the Democrats the shock of their lives.
Every vote matters...So does YOURS!
My Democrat neighbors just went and voted for Romney and Connie Mack this morning. They are disgusted with Obama. The man has never voted before until today and he is 75 yoa.
CNN has it even with democrats oversampled by 11 points
when you add these #’s
over sampled democrats 11
democrats who will cross over and vote Repub 5
Republican represent 6 more than democrats 6
11 + 5 + 6...doesn’t that represent a 22 point victory for Romney? wt*?
I know three and possibly 4 who voted for Obama last time and have voted for Romney this time around. Is it a coincidence that they are small business owners?
Sounds like it should be a big win for Romney.
No wonder all this vote fraud is happening
I’m glad Rush talked about this because I’ve been talking about it myself. These stupid pundits on TV don’t even talk about the possibility of Dems voting outside the groupthink. I thought if Romney picked off 1 or 2% of the Dem vote that would be good, but 5%? A.W.E.S.O.M.E.
From this article, I take away the Rush does ot understand how primary research works.
After the data is collected, from the 1200 surveys, the pollsters then adjust the sample to what they believe is the true population proportion.
So if CNN thinks the turnout is going to be like 2008, they adjust (weight) the democrat, republican, and independent results to the “true” population proportion. This is done legitimately to remove sample bias from results. However, it can introduce “pollster bias.”
That is what is happening in 2012 - samples are being adjusted to reflect the turnout proportions of 2008. After doing this - *IF* they results are still tied for Obama, then Obama is toast. The bloom is off the rose for Obama. (On this point Rush has it right.)
Your math may be a little bit off.
Only 5% of Democrats are going to vote for Romney? That’s supposed to be impressive?
So 95% of Rats are going to stick with Bonzo.
Are we to believe that 100% of Republicans are going to vote for Romney? How naive is that?
In reality, there will proably be roughly the same % of crossovers both ways. You can find polls (even reputable ones) to document that. So take off that 5 from your equation.
Is R turnout really going to be +6? Not even the most delusional poll has R enthusiasm THAT high. +1 or +2, maybe.
11 percent oversample? Where is it written that there are exactly the same number of Ds and Rs in the USA? Maybe there really *are* more Democrats (no ‘maybe’ about it) — not 11% more, no way, but perhaps 5% more? Perhaps 7%?
If there really are 5% more D than R then a D+11 poll is “oversampling” not by 11% but by 6%. Still pretty bad.
So let’s say Mitt wins by 5 or 6 at most, not..... 22.
Even 5 or 6 sounds high, but as long as he wins by 1 in the electoral college that’s good enough.
Gallup and Rasmussen have both D’s and R’s losing about the same amount to the other side so Ras has a higher number. Rush shouldn’t be hanging his hat on this one. It’s all about the turnout and the early vote turnout is definitely trending away from a 2008 model.
Red State/Blue State
Does anyone know who came up with the Red State/Blue State designations for conservative/liberal states?
It has always seemed odd to me that conservative/Republican-leaning states are the ones called “Red” States, since “Red” is the color long associated with the Far Left, and that more closely approximates Democratic beiefs than Republican ones.
It seems to me that calling conservative states the “red” states is a deliberate attempt to blur the distinction between liberalism and Far Left ideas. Whoever came up with these designations did NOT want people to make the connection between liberalism and the Far Left.
Truth be known, it’s gonna be a lot more than 5%. Especially around here where Obama’s moves against coal and shale fracking could consign many of them to permanent unemployment.
I believe this. My dad is a registered Democrat who voted for Obama in 2008. He says now that it was the biggest mistake of his life and has already voted early for Romney.
I talked to a co-worker last night who told me he has voted in every Presidential election since 1976. He’s a registered Democrat who has always voted straight Democrat ticket. Never voted for a Republican for President. Until this year. He is voting for Romney today. I think there are a lot of Democrats out there like my dad and co-worker.
The preponderance of Benghazi evidence conclusively shows that Obama is a Coward. As a Coward, Obama is unfit to be the Commander in Chief of the US Military.
Obamas strategic retreat to Las Vegas, Nevada the day after he authorized that 4 Americans were to be left behind to be murdered, has brought indelible shame to his office, and the Democrat Party.
As parents, who among us wants to send our sons and daughters to a US Military that has a Commander In Chief who is a Coward?
May the heros of Benghazi be proud of how we vote today.
They gave their lives for us, now we need to give our votes for them.
Vote as if the lives of our Military Men and Women depended on it.
My understanding of the ‘rat oversampling is that that is what their sample actually was. This just means that they didn’t get a good sample, probably because R’s don’t answer pollsters on the phone.
I believe this will be a big win for R/R - stopped off at Church on the way home from voting to light a candle and say some prayers for the outcome.
Please God they win and win BIG.
Wouldn’t it be poetic justice if Obama eeked out a narrow victory in Ohio through campaigning and political buyoffs but lost Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, New Hampshire - and maybe even Connecticut and/or Maryland? WOW...
I posted 6 months ago Romney will win PA...all my dem relatives are voting R. Just because dems voted early doesn’t mean they are for Obama, Rush. I sent him a letter and it was returned....wrong FLA address. 24 to 2 Romney signs driving to my old home in western PA
I posted 6 months ago Romney will win PA...all my dem relatives are voting R. Just because dems voted early doesn’t mean they are for Obama, Rush. I sent him a letter and it was returned....wrong FLA address. 24 to 2 Romney signs driving to my old home in western PA
No it wouldn’t because he (President Obama) isn’t going to win Ohio!
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