Blacks are 10% of the electorate and vote 95% Dem. Latinos are 10% today and rapidly growing. They voted 75% Dem. Dems have 17.5% guaranteed before the election begins. Add another 2.5% with Jews, Muslims, and Asians. Dems only need 30% from the white population, Repubs start with the 3% of blacks and Hispanics who don’t vote Dem.
The white population is declining rapidly as a % of the population and electorate. Plus Dems have been successful capturing a disproportionate share of white females with their war on women rhetoric. There are not enough conservative white men to carry the Republicans to victory.
Another way to look at it is the way Romney did. 47% of the population receives a government check and will vote to protect its benefits. If you are the party credited with granting and protecting benefits you need only swing 3 to 5% of the remaining voters to win. There are enough young voters and white working females responsive to emotional appeals to swing.
Finally, there is the phenomenon of urban versus rural. People living in cities necessarily cede freedom to live in an urban area. They are dependent on 21st century technology and the government administered infrastructure to maintain order and deliver food required for survival. These people accept government restrictions on freedom and appreciat its ability to collect money from individuals which is then pooled for the common good. They endure high taxes because they enjoy the mass transit, police protection, fire protection, water system, museums, sorts stadiums, concert halls, garbage collection, street festivals, parks, zoos, schools and roads the government provides. The country is becoming more urban and the Dems control urban governments. These urban voters are favorably disposed to Dem promises of more services. What does individual liberty mean to someone living in an 800 square foot apartment who rides a subsidized bus to work and perceives jogging through a government maintained park as communing with nature? Perhaps having the choice of 200 cable TV channels, the ability to walk to dozens of good restaurants, and an occasional ball game or concert is enough freedom. If so, the conservative message of individual liberty and limited government will not be compelling, particularly when combined with a promise to reduce spending on government services.
The nation’s electorate has shifted demographically and geographically. A growing minority and urban population does not perceive opportunity in limited government and the personal accountability associated with individual liberty. To them the tangible government delivered benefits, made possible by taxing individuals for the common good, are more meaningful than the abstract opportunity to make the most of one’s God given talents particularly when the opportunity afforded by freedom means accepting the very real risk of failure.
True conservatives are a shrinking minority. The majority of the nation desires the benefits of the collective state. As long as the masses do not bear it’s cost, and go home to a warm and dry home with a widescreen TV, they will be content. To the voters who now decide elections, freedom is the ability to sit at home choosing between hundreds of channels and being able to have recreational sex without consequences thanks to government paid abortions and child support depending on which choice one makes for the unborn.
What does individual liberty mean to someone living in an 800 square foot apartment who rides a subsidized bus to work and perceives jogging through a government maintained park as communing with nature?Excellent analysis.