Possibly true, but not said, at least in these words, by Tocqueville.
I’d really love for somebody to compile a list of “the world’s great civilizations,” with their starting and ending dates showing an average of 200 years.
The Chinese civilization is arguably at present around 3000 years old, the Japanese around 1500.
Rome lasted somewhere between 800 and 2000 years, depending on how you figure it.
Also attributed to Alexander Fraser Tytler (1747-1813)... who knows... in any event, the quote has been around since the 1950s and is still very true.
The Chinese had many rises and falls of dynasties, each Dynasty was a new political nation on the same geography. And from the start of the Han dynasty around 200 BC to the present the average length each lasted is around 200 years, and none lasted 300 years.
The Chinese “civilization” has blossomed, collapsed, regenerated, and bloomed again through several cycles. But each cycle probably lasted, on average, about three or four times per millenium. The one thing that seemed to tie it together is the keeping of extensive records, by a civil service based on merit and recruited from all reaches of the extent of the various empires that were established.
“I’d really love for somebody to compile a list of “the world’s great civilizations,” with their starting and ending dates showing an average of 200 years.
The Chinese civilization is arguably at present around 3000 years old, the Japanese around 1500.
Rome lasted somewhere between 800 and 2000 years, depending on how you figure it.”
The keyword is “democracy”! Chinese and Japanese “civilizations” were never democracies!
The Roman democracy only lasted for 300+ years until it was destroyed by the establishment of the empire with its autocratic, imperial leaders.