The demographics are bad and getting worse.
The electorate has become tribal — voting as a bloc on race, gender, sexual orientation — and therefore less fluid and less able to be persuaded.
Romney won the white vote in a landslide. There just aren’t enough of them anymore. That’s the blunt takeaway of this election.
About the only pathway to victory I see at this point is for the Left to fragment. A dismal economy might force their various thieving constituencies to fight over the diminishing pie, thus fragmenting their coalition. Its hard for me to see conservatives winning the presidency any other way.
I am less worried about the demographics than you are, admittedly.
Nominate a Republican candidate who can get the number of votes McCain got, for starters. Romney was leaving votes on the table that were obvious for him to get. Those people were not voting for Obama. Obama’s votes were way down.
The battle is going to be over all those people who were in the decreased turnout this year and it’s not at all clear that they were Democrats.
Just trying to give another point of view. There was nothing extreme or “landslide” about this. Obama eked out a small victory, and he was the incumbent so he starts with that advantage, which the next Democrat candidate won’t have.
And as you mention, the left can fragment — it commonly fragments. This unity behind Obama is the exception, not the rule. People have a particular emotional attachment to him they’re not going to have to, say, Hillary.
“About the only pathway to victory I see at this point is for the Left to fragment. A dismal economy might force their various thieving constituencies to fight over the diminishing pie, thus fragmenting their coalition. Its hard for me to see conservatives winning the presidency any other way.”
How about binge on debt money? It’s possible, and while I hope against Obama spending not much worse than before,
He has demonstrated the following tendencies:
1) Welfare is a ponzi scheme: People are ushered in for money for unsustainably high returns. What is normally an investment for someone trying to find a foothold in the career market.
2) Deficit: Unless Obama radically turns back on spending via vetoes and contesting bills with Congress, he will, as of next year, have a debt equal to all of our economic production ($16 trillion).
3) War: If Obama tries to simply look tough with Iran, via increased graduation of military force, he will add a minimum of 300 billion to the total budget annually, make that more if we actually engage in a war.
4) Debt interest: You have the problem of how immense the interest on the National Debt is. It’s already just $450 billion at lows of 2.8% annual interest rates, which means that soon the interest will become an elephant in the room.
Then there’s so much more regarding the National Debt, but the problem is, with inflation, bankruptcy in California, plus perhaps as high as 25 to 30 trillion in debt, as the deficits are expected to rise with the added cost of Obamacare and existing compounded interest on our debt, we’re all going to be in serious trouble, and Obama will be eventually be limited either because we’ve fallen into the debt trap with foreign investors, which is why they loan us, or additional inflation from adding money to circulation.
A combination of inflation and/or debt limits will ultimately cut into the leftist selling point of giving away the freebies by sheer force of circumstance.
Even worse is the fact that incomes all across the board are taking a cut.
In short the left is going to be left to either start refusing their own freebies and self-destruct against the rage of their useful pool of payees, or they will simply be rendered ineffective by lower currency values.
Either way, the government isn’t really likely to have a last laugh on this one, they’re digging a really deep ditch for short-term gain. I hope and pray that Obama gets a clue as to the potential cliff our nation is headed and uses his icon status to try and change his path, and our nation’s path, however, I sadly admit that the choice is his, and if he does, well, sadly enough, a new America, or hopefully a new sane government comes up, because this insanity is simply self-destructive.
Regarding those disenfranchised, make sure to keep the private charities working overtime over the next few years, because starting with the aftermath of Sandy, they need it now, and there’s no telling how much harder they’re going to need some serious help from the rest of us from subsequent disasters in coming days, months, and years.