How is that remotely possible if Conservatives are staying home?
Because independents are voting! Romney was up +18 with them going in. Please, understand, rino's lose Nationally it's completely evident now, especially after this last election. Conservatives do NOT vote for rino's. Is that not evident to you? Obama voters came out more than expected and conservative sat out more than expected.
This is another misunderstanding from the polling this year: party ID is fluid. A lot of those "independents" are actually Tea Partiers who in years past would have just said they were Republicans. Look at how many people on FR voted for Romney, but would not call themselves Republicans (they would answer "independent" if surveyed).
People also change their self-identification. Look at the number of Freepers who would have identified as Republican last week who are now declaring themselves staunchly independent.
Thinking that "party ID" was some kind of fixed measurement is the #1 mistake that "Unskewed Polls" made.