Skip to comments.What Major Demographic Shift?
Posted on 11/08/2012 7:09:21 AM PST by Qbert
Conservatives need to take a collective breath and look closer at the numbers before they buy into the idea that GOP nominee Mitt Romney's defeat was due to some kind of national demographic shift that now makes Democrat presidential candidates' armor impenetrable. Before you give in to the hysteria, here are a few things to keep in mind.
First, Barack Obama's re-election showing was actually pretty unimpressive for a guy whose philosophies voters have supposedly adopted. As of this writing on Wednesday, Obama's vote total stood at an unimpressive 60,119,958. That's about what John Kerry got in 2004 (59,028,444). President George W. Bush actually did far better than Obama in his 2004 reelection quest, posting a vote total that was about 2 million higher (62,040,610) than what Obama got on Tuesday. That's hardly a remarkable finish in a country with a population that has increased. In fact, it's a decline of 9 million votes from Obama's 2008 total.
Had Romney (57,425,441) done as well as McCain did in 2008 (59,934,814), he and Obama would have run neck and neck, virtually matching each other's vote totals. That's hardly the stuff of demographic ruin.
The question Republicans and conservatives need to ask is not why voters showed up for Obama, whose turnout wasn't exactly extraordinary, but why millions of their own voters, people who had pulled the lever for Bush and McCain, didn't do the same for Romney or simply stayed home.
Why did Romney get a full 2 million fewer votes than McCain did? Why did those voters pull the lever for McCain, but not for Romney? Who were they and where did they go? That is what Republican and conservative strategists need to find out.
Is it possible that Republicans and conservative leaning independents just weren't that wild about...
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Seriously, I think some of it is Conservative's are just dying off. The WWII. Korean and Vietnam Vet's and like minded family members are being replaced by the Beyonce's and J-Zee hipsters that are all about cool and not their education and what they bring to our nation rather than give-me's...
But never mind that, Republicans face a demographic shift called DEAD PEOPLE. When registered Republican voters die they must be replaced by new registered Republican voters.
If they are not replaced with a steady, aggressive, voter registration drive among likely Republican voters, we will lose elections.
By my estimation I don't believe there's been a serious Republican interest in registering new Republicans in Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria in Northern Virginia in over 12 years. That probably knocks our effective voting strength back about 50% below what it could be.
It’s because Romney wasn’t Reagan or Palin.But the sad truth is that neither Reagan nor Palin would have a prayer today.The demographics and the mores *are* shifting and they’re shifting *fast*.Unlike in 1980 just about half of the nation (not 47% as Romney noted) is riding in the wagon as opposed to helping to push it.This is right out of the Ted Kennedy/Saul Alinsky playbook.We have become a nation of victims and that’s *just* the way the Rats want it.
Check the map! Just because we’re at the mercy of the urban areas, doesn’t mean this is the ‘end’.
Romney got two million less votes than McCain. What can we surmise from that info. Hmmmm. Who was McCain’s running mate? Could that have been a factor? hmmmmm. The fact is why I gladly voted for Romney over Obama, I eagerly voted for McCain because Palin was on the ticket. I love Ryan as well, but I have to think Palin stirred the emotions of Pubbies like no one since Reagan. I’ve got to believe she was the reason McCain outpolled Romney.
“This is right out of the Ted Kennedy/Saul Alinsky playbook.”
Listening to all the noise about what issues the Republicans need to address reminds me of Saul’s quote...
‘It’s never about the issues, it’s about power and control.’
Too many Americans want more free stuff instead of Freedom.
No won is pointing that. Fewer people voted in this election. The undecided apparently stayed home.
This may be true, but the demographics will eventually overcome us.
Registration of young Republican voters is important—I agree with that.
The young people have the most to lose in a big-government, no-growth, nanny-state world. So for those who “get it”, why wouldn’t they register and vote.
Just a thought—but we may a “Chief Justice” problem.
You see, the Republican Chief Justice sold young people down the river by requiring them to purchase health insurance they don’t want. He chose to enslave them, pure and simple.
Why would a young person vote if they believed that future Republicans or Democrats would just get them more of the same?
High divorce rates that smash the family structure, pop culture, the media and pinko teachers are reasons why we have a dumbing down of society and a greedy and dependent mentality. It doesn't bode well for the future and I am generally not a fatalist but when people gets their “news” from Whoopi Goldberg and Jon Stewart, we are in a major crisis.
Our own companies have caused this.
BRING BACK AMERICAN JOBS.
Think. America has been shedding jobs for almost 30 years now.
Everywhere. But most concerning, increasingly to China.
Nobody talks about it. We are building a huge, dangerous enemy and bankrupting our nation at the same time.
WHILE LOSING VOTES.
the 50 top most populated cities represent only 19% of the votes.
Damn straight. We are right where we were in 2010. Nothing has changed. We are closer to the abyss for sure, but we can try to blunt that in the 2014 mid-terms.
It is not one or the other...there is a demographic change. We also have to get our side to the polls. You are correct in that the difference here could easily have been getting our vote out.
Either way, the demographic change has caused us to just barely scrape by when we do win. 2000 was a popular vote loss, and 2004 was too close considering that we pretty much peaked our GOTV in that cycle. The big difference is that the left now has their machine in place in every swing state to get all these groups to the polls. It is baked in now every presidential cycle.
I was pondering this question also and what I come up with is locality...that a state that goes blue nationally can still send conservatives to congress in the majority. My state of VA for instance went blue for prez/senate because of the govt Assholes in Fairfax county, Loudon county, and Fauquier county. Most of the rest of VA is red, red, red so most of our congresscritters, a majority, are conservative...
That’s how the House stays red...
"Romney got two million less votes than McCain. What can we surmise from that info. Hmmmm. Who was McCains running mate? Could that have been a factor? hmmmmm. The fact is why I gladly voted for Romney over Obama, I eagerly voted for McCain because Palin was on the ticket. I love Ryan as well, but I have to think Palin stirred the emotions of Pubbies like no one since Reagan. Ive got to believe she was the reason McCain outpolled Romney."
Yep. I remember watching Newt on the RNC floor in Minnesota in 2008 after Palin spoke- he said something to the effect that there was a feeling in that room that had been missing since 1980.
Ryan's a good man, but yeah, you either feel it or you don't.
The evangelicals stayed home (Glenn Beck is saying there were more out but I doubt much), or worse....I ran across some movement that made it into FR to write in “Jesus Christ” where the guy pushing it was hoping for over a million votes.
I don’t want to start anything here, but its true we had two non-”Christian” candidates- 1st time in history ...though one can make the argument freemasons claiming to be “Christian” are as the present two- but I know not if two such freemasons ran against each other.
If this is true then we have to ask why all the posts here claiming large turnout at Romney rallies meant high R turnout for voting, and all the ‘high turnout at the polls means Republicans are coming out to vote in massive numbers’ ?
There were so many of these posted the last week it appeared to be a very common belief here, especially reading the comments.
So if that theory above holds we are talking massive delusion.
In fact I was on a Maryland specific thread here pooing this belief (high R turnout) and I ruffled some feathers. Rs got slaughtered here in this Dem state.
“Barack Obama is now the first president in American history to win a second term with a smaller share of the electoral vote, a smaller share of the popular vote, and a smaller aggregate vote than when he was first elected.”
This victory was less a triumphant finish for Obama than a failure of Romney to cross the finish line. Arguably, he was neck-in-neck, if not ahead, right after the first debate. He simply couldn’t sustain that lead.
I think Romney would have done vastly better if he’d let Ryan be Ryan and draw some bright-line contrasts between the president’s plan to add $6.4 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years and Romney’s plan to balance the budget by 2020 without raising taxes. The vast majority of Americans abhor our indebtedness and want to see us reverse course.
If anything, we’re gaining ground. Just yesterday I saw posts about 2 states that took their first GOP majorities in decades. In 2010 we seized a solid GOP majority in Michigan and just the other day crushed 2 of the worst union backed ballot proposals we’ve ever seen and also destroyed a green energy mandate on the ballot as well. Joe Arpio won reelection by some 10% and Roy Moore is chief justice of the Alabama supreme court.
We are seriously undermining democrat foundations and they can’t stop it.
For those who want to whine and cry, that’s fine, just go quietly into the night but make sure to do it quietly because those of us who still want to fight don’t need your discouragement.
What kind of a fool uses an apostrophe for every word with the letter "s" at the end?
I think you are right on target on what is needed to be done, but not quite following your last sentence.
-——————We’ve got a great big red college out there and we can use that to seize control of all the education and culture if conservatives put some real effort into it.—————————
Can you explain a bit more. It’s all I’ve been thinking about the last few days - how we rip the universities that are teaching our public school teachers out of the hands of liberals. We homeschooled and private Christian schooled our kids, and other than a few carefully chosen junior college classes, our kids will NEVER attend a public state university - but that isn’t an option or on the radar for most folks.
What can conservatives do to clean out the universities (and take back the public high schools for that matter.)
I think this needs to be the FIRST priority (along with taking back the MSM), otherwise all our plans for political victory in the future are just silly daydreams
"This may be true, but the demographics will eventually overcome us."
Then what are you going to do about it? Are we just supposed to hide under the table like a bunch of RINOs? Are we all supposed to feel guilty about Conservatism, as if it's something shameful?
Despite all of our talk and pandering, we have never really gone in and communicated the message to minorities and others. We do the same thing over and over and expect a different result- which of course, is the "definition of insanity". Why should we throw in the towel when we've never even really made an honest attempt in the first place?
the problem was Romney was too weak a candidate to beat the demographics
it ain't complicated
stupid people continue to believe myths about race and votes
and now they will run to accommodate that
we deserve to collapse..we are simply weak dumbasses
there are stupids right here who think a white guy with a latino wifey (like me once) or a latino last name (Rubio)
wil make squatty Mexicans who have invaded us vote GOP
you guys are idiots...
these squatties want another Indian Socialist/Caudillo to vote for who will give them the crap they came here for
and what is that wardaddy?
they want what we have that they think we (white devils on horseback) once upon a time stole from their historical nirvana where they bowled with human heads and rode the great blade down the temple steps for sport and whatnot..all in hopes of more maize
and they have the numbers along with blacks..who also detest traditional whites and with collaborative whites and Orientals to do just that
take it all with nary a shot fired
our wealth and our liberty
and ninnies here and on FOX and the Weekly Standard
will clamour for someone non white to deliver
the only hope to win would have been maybe..someone to motivate our base
like Levin said...import the right immigrants, seal borders to the little brown socialists and good whites and others start having more babies
a very long shot and one the LEFT will do everything to thwart
now Obama may just screw up everything so bad we will win by default
but the GOP will go taco...no question
or black beans at a minimu
the most telling fact in all this is that overall...Orientals...achievers with income for the most part...vote against the "white establishment" too...in higher numbers than Jews even
it's not just about the money folks...we have pointed this out forever
it's about pure simply human resentment about being different from the majority host
so let's just cut the head off the host shall we?
They should dropped the less popular budgetary priorities (defense, tax cuts over spending cuts etc) and had had a viable plan to balance the budget in the first place.
For instance. Here in Michigan, Tea partier Rob Steele was on the ballot for one of two seats on the University of Michigan board of Regents. He didn’t win but he did finish 4th with 1,595,608 behind the second place winning democrat who got 1,891,281 votes.
There were no ads and virtually no news reports. Not a peep came from the tea partiers and the result is that two union democrats took the seats. That was a very winnable in the heart of Michigan liberalism and we didn’t win it because we don’t pay attention to those downticket races the way we should
For those who don’t know. Rob Steele was the 2010 late entry challenger to John Dingell. Dingell won but the race cost him millions he shouldn’t have spent and was the tightest race of his loooooong political career.
The GOP-e is clutching its tattered security blanket and trying not to cry at another ignominious defeat. What they ought to be afraid of is the anger of the conservatives at being hoodwinked one more time into supporting a losing “moderate”, the very familiar Charlie Brown/ Lucy football scenario.
Conservatives should have started planning their alternative to the Republican Party yesterday morning. The decrepit GOP has fallen. and it can’t get up.
Please tell me. Where did you get that quote from Mark’s show?? I’d like to have the whole transcript for the first 5 minutes or so.
I got it from this thread.
“Why did Romney get a full 2 million fewer votes than McCain did? Why did those voters pull the lever for McCain, but not for Romney? Who were they and where did they go?”
O.K., I’ll buy that aaalysis as far as looking at the national popular vote total, and national demographics
I am not sure we will be as impressed with what we find, on an electoral college basis - maybe, maybe not
like in the case of Ohio, the “missing” GOP vote is under 15,000; while Obama lost 300K plus, but it only reduced his margin of victory to 50.1% instead of the 2008 figure of 52.3% - a very blue state, with enough blues to spare that even a low turnout does not knock the Dim candidate out
so, yes we need to understand the MAJOR GOP no shows, but in doing so we need to concentrate and WHERE they are
in some places they may have made a difference, in some very blue places maybe not
ok - thanks
‘If this is true, why did Republicans maintain a strong majority in the House?’
Because those were votes for Romney and the Republican Congress, but the voting machine flipped Romney votes into Obama votes, but left the R votes intact!
How convenient that in all battleground states, the RATS have just big enough votes to give obama the edge! The Dem stronghold reported the stuffed ballot for obama after the Republican votes were reported so they know how much to stuff it!
WE CAN’T FIGHT THEM THE LEGITIMATE WAY. We have to play as dirty!
If not, then - the only way is to -
pull all our resources together to secure Kenyan soetoro’s bc from Kenya!
Trump has 5 millions. We gather more. Work underground to let money secure the real Kenyan bc from the Kenyan who is holding it.
That is the ultimate weapon!
We have no other way to fight the usurper/terrorist/tyrant!
Jeb is a disaster waiting to happen, but demographic changes are a reality. Republicans had everything going for them on the national level, and still lost. The only explanation that makes sense is that “issues” are secondary to group identities. And it’s really been that way throughout most of American history. Unless Republicans figure out a way to attract blacks, Asians, and Latinos, we’re going to have a very hard time winning.
Its really a lot more complicated than who did or didn’t show up.
Here in Michigan Debbie Stabenow got more votes than Obama.
2,594,617 Stabenow to 1,708,256 Hoekstra
2,432,113 Obama to 2,040,175 Romney
To further skew things, the unions who largely turned out for the democrats were crushed on their ballot proposals.
Early voting and moyor voter scams
Have to be stopped in all GOP controlled places like FL ,
It’s leads to voter fraud and massive bussing of entire groups for days .
Reagan won before the Introduction of motor voter and early voting !
Are you including the entire metro areas of the 50 top cities? For example, it would be folly to think of L.A. only as the geographical area within the city limits of Los Angeles itself.
Dems vote in Ohio to keep early voting for a reason !
And stop voter Ids in wi and pa
Yeah. A former neighbor of mine just happened to drive up to Michigan from Florida on election day to “check on the house he owns here”. He’s a hard core unionista.
My militant lesbian cousin in Minnesota was bragging about her election eve slumber party with out of state guests.
There will never be a capitulation to Jeb 2016. Period.
The whole idea needs to be rethought.
They shouldn't be out there on the factory floor either.
Less than half the population in almost any society are not actively engaged in income producing work.
I don't think that's a problem; I don't think Romney understood what he was saying ~ just mouthing something he heard on Hannity about the 47%, and even Hannity had no idea what it was about and didn't bother learning until next thing we know he's campaigning to raise taxes on the poor!
Write off the 47% thing as bad propaganda gone astray ~ even the Obamistas and their running dog lackeys dropped their campaign against it when they discovered they, too, had no idea what anybody was talking about.
The left feels so privileged and a right to cheat !
The left feels so privileged and a right to cheat !