well, Rove was not far off vis-a-vis Ohio
the popular vote difference was all of 0.2%; 50.1 to 49.9, or in the neighborhood of just 10K votes I think; and I don’t know what % of precints were reported when Rove made his comment, but if he thought the % of precints reported was still early, it may not have been unreasonable, in a race - Ohio - that really was close, to think there was still another 10,000 vote difference Romney’s way in the remaining precincts
And I believe Obama’s margin of victory in Ohio currently stands at more than 100,000 — which means that whoever called Ohio for Obama when it was only a 10,000-vote difference obviously knew what they were talking about. I’m sure that possibility never even crossed Rove’s mind.