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Rove based his projections on the polls.
But the polls were way out of whack with what happened Tuesday.

How and why could the polls be so wrong?
There are reports from all areas of voter fraud.
Here are a few:

Vote was astronomical for Obama in some Philadelphia wards

In 13 Philadelphia wards Obama received 99% or more of the vote

http://articles.philly.com/2012-11-09/news/34995157_1_voter-turnout-president-obama-gop-voters

What Luck! Obama Won Dozens of Cleveland Districts with 100% of the Vote

In Cleveland, in some districts he did even better with an astounding 100% of the vote in dozens of locations.

http://www.punditpress.com/2012/11/what-luck-obama-won-dozens-of-cleveland.html

Colorado Counties Have More Voters Than People

Census records reveals ten counties having a total registration ranging between 104 to 140 percent of the respective populations.

http://www.redstate.com/2012/09/04/colorado-counties-have-more-voters-than-people/