So you’re saying that if the recall elections had been held Nov. 6 the Republican losses would have been greater — can you explain your reasoning why? Would it have just been due to turnout, or (as I suspect) are there a large number of straight party-line voters in a Presidential year? Or maybe both?
Trying to understand how Obama and Baldwin won in WI in spite of the consistent pattern of Republican wins since 2008.
The Republicans would have not had any sort of ground game built up in Wisconsin, nor the confidence that a win under their belt would have given them. Also, Wisconsin would not have been a swing state under that case, such as that the Romney campaign and RNC would have likely written off Wisconsin in this case. Finally, Tom Barrett and Mahlon Mitchell would have had ample time to even the playing field against Scott Walker and Rebecca Kleefisch, and the Obama machine and the Unions would been more able to drive out a more eager voting population for him.
In that scenario, Obama would have gotten similar returns that he got in 08, and Sean Duffy and Reid Ribble would have lost their seats. And the State Legislature would be in the hands of the Democrats. And we would have Tom Barrett and Mahlon Mitchell, on top of Tammy Baldwin. Even Paul Ryan’s seat would have been threatened in this scenario.