The Auto Bailout Didn’t Decide Ohio ("historic black turnout " did)

TNR ^ | Nate Cohn

[Arthurio]

-snip-

While many believed that the auto bailout and attacks on Romney as an out-of-touch plutocrat would allow the president to win the state with the support of white working class voters, the exit polls show that Obama did worse among Ohio’s white voters than John Kerry. This was not true, however, in the other Midwestern battleground states like Wisconsin and Iowa. Moreover, if there was anywhere that the president should have excelled due to the auto bailout, it would have been northeast Ohio. But the president lost northeastern Ohio’s two classic white middle class bellwethers: Lake County, home to the overwhelmingly white suburbs and exurbs east of Cleveland, and Stark County, home to Canton. The president also lost additional ground in traditionally Democratic stretches of eastern Ohio, where Obama performed worse than any Democrat since McGovern in a stretch of “coal country” along the Ohio River. And Obama’s problems weren’t limited to eastern Ohio. The president performed poorly in southwestern Ohio, including one deeply conservative and culturally southern county where Obama’s performance was the worst by a Democrat since at least 1868.

-snip-

Instead, historic black turnout carried Obama to victory in the Buckeye State. As mentioned prior to the election, much of Obama’s improvement over Kerry was attributable to gains among black voters. In 2004, African Americans represented 11 percent of the Ohio electorate and voted 84 percent for Kerry. In 2012, 15 percent of Ohio’s electorate was African American and voted 96 percent for the president. These figures probably overstate the increase in black turnout, but there’s not much question that black voters are the main reason why Obama did better than Kerry. In 2004, Kerry won the four counties corresponding to Ohio’s largest black population centers—Cleveland, Toledo, Columbus, and Cincinnati—by 16 points while losing the rest of the state by 11. In 2012, Obama won the four large, urban counties by 25 points while losing the rest of the state by 9.1 points.

[RC one]

The majority of those votes appear to be from heavily democratic precincts. If it was a game changer, I can’t help but think that Romney would have run with it.

[wastoute]

It is curious that people on te ground in Ohio said that the voting taking place at those locations was down but the numbers indicate that voting was taking place at historically high levels. How does that happen? Only one way I can think...

[ballplayer]

You mean Tax payer dollars in the form of a Billion to Acorn,therefore to the Black Community,from the Stimulus Program to elect the Marxist. There fixed it

[circlecity]

Historic black turnout = massive voter fraud.

[Third Person]

It’s not voter fraud.... it’s affirmative action voting!

[Mike Darancette]

Your reward is a cut in food stamp money.

[a fool in paradise]

The question is would Obama have done worse without the auto bailout and attack ads? It seems to me that the answer is yes. In other words, without those ads, he would’ve lost Ohio, minority turnout notwithstanding.

He would've lost the welfare minority vote as well if news of the reduction of their payments by the Fed wasn't suppressed for one week.

Ohioans’ Food Stamp Aid to be Reduced (Monday, November 12, 2012)

Because of the way the federal government calculates utility expenses for people receiving the benefit, a mild winter nationwide last year, and a lower price for natural gas, many families could experience a significant cut in aid, those familiar with the program say.

Recipients should get a letter from the state Department of Job and Family Services this month explaining the change, said Ben Johnson, a spokesman for the agency.

Also this story was delayed...

Foodstamps Surge By Most In One Year To New All Time Record, In Delayed Release (Posted on Saturday, November 10, 2012)