That is more than likely what will happen in our case. There won't have to be any (or much) shooting, and the Feds won't be able to do anything about it. And the required financial collapse is just around the corner. We better start thinking now about how to take advantage of it.
The biggest issues would be ... who gets stuck with the national debt, and what happens to federally owned lands (much of the west of owned by the federal government)