Skip to comments.There's Another Massive Source Of Energy Coming, And The World Has George W. Bush To Thank
Posted on 11/20/2012 12:28:17 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Citi's commodities team believes Iraqi oil production is set to explode in the coming years, causing prices to turn downward.
In a massive survey helmed by analyst Edward Morse, Citi's team projects Brent crude to fall to $99 next year.
One of the main reasons: Iraq's oil production is poised to reach heights never seen in its history — neither prior to America's 2003 invasion nor in Iraq's '80s heyday.
This would be the world's second huge energy boom, with the US being the other big story.
Importantly, the current Iraq trajectory is based on post-invasion dynamics.
For instance, a second development at the West Qurna field, which didn't exist before the invasion, could yield up to 13 million barrels per day if fully realized.
Citi cites one field owned by China's CNPC whose 1997 contract terms were renegotiated after the invasion and whose production target of 120-130 kbpd peak target is now six years ahead of schedule.
Another major oil field, the Majnoon, near the border with Iran, had essentially been shuttered for several decades but is now expected to yield 1.8 million barrels per day.
...non-OPEC supply, combined with NGLs and Iraq, looks to grow faster than global demand, reducing the "call on OPEC crude". The US and Canada lead a supply growth charge, but Russia, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, and Brazil should also contribute to total non-OPEC supply growth of +0.9-m b/d in 2013.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
The Dems don't like this news. Thus their activities down in Tampa.
But hyper-inflation bolstered by Obozo-Bernanke printing presses running full tilt 24/7/365 will insure we still pay $4+ per gallon for decades to come.......
So good to know we can still depend on Mid-East oil.
Love to see the day when OPEC sheiks have to try eating sandwiches made of the crude they can’t sell.
Yeah, how is this good news? Because the Iraqis are so trustworthy? Bush’s great folly was creating another Islamic state.
OK... I agree with the title of this article but I’m still p*ssed-off that W & Administration agreed that all of that oil revenue would go to the Iraqi people... At a MINIMUM, royalties should have gone to the people of the USA for a decade or two (or until the cost of that freeing Iraq enterprise was fully returned). JMHO.
Right now supply and demand are so finely balanced that anytime there is a whiff of global expansion, rising gdp and generally good news—the price of oil shoots up and chokes off the recovery.
But in two or three years the collapse of oil prices is generally expected as supply outstrips demand .
This will work as a massive spur to the world wide economy.
Obama will have had nothing to do with it but, Alas, his minions will spin it in such as a way as to make him look good.
F Iraq, we need to get our energy from home, and stop being held hostage by the Middle East.
“Bushs great folly was creating another Islamic state.”
At the behest of his Saudi Masters.
Iraq has barely scratched the surface. Ditto Kazakhstan.
??? It closed just below $85 today.
Do not let hindsight lead your thinking here.
At the time, the Senate Majority Leader was assuring us the Iraqi war was lost, Cindy Sheehan was camped out at the Western White House, and Code Pink was assailing Condi Rice with bloody hands. The driveby media was showing nude prisoner pyramids daily as if Bush himself lined them up like that.
Add to this the fact that no one in the Bush administration would defend themselves—we didn’t go toe to toe with the media, the Left and the dems (redundant, I know) and they were able to set the public’s thinking against us.
The democrats won big in 2006 due to this, and had we taken the oil, all Hell would have broken loose.
We were lucky to get the Surge going despite all of the above, and the fact that the Iraqi Sunnis themselves got tired of the fighting.
it’s going to take time to unwind the lies and we need to start now. First one will be to correctly identify the causes of the 2008 meltdown as caused by liberal housing policy. Second will be to correctly identify liberal policy being behind the debt. The wars didn’t help, but they’re small contribitors in the grand scheme of things
So that’s why the Iraqis are yammering to the Saudis about how oil can be used as a weapon against us....they want to give us cheap oil! Those jackasses aren’t going to flood the market for us.
It says Brent Crude.
Wasn’t more than 2 day ago that an Iraqi PM of some sort suggesting that OPEC should “their oil weapon” against the West.
Only fools on a payroll trust koranimals.
actually strategic victory in the middle east would be created by collapsed oil prices. why?
all the gulf arabs need at least 80@barrel to pay for their government goodies. I’ve heard the saudis say they can scratch by at 60@ barrel. maybe.
at 30-40@ barrel all these countries start to dip into their strategic capital reserves. let them do that for a decade and they’re flat broke.
guess what happens when they’re flat broke.
they can’t fund all the madresses around the middle east that act as the top of the funnel for the jihadists.
For example pakistan had a total of 10 madrasses in 1980. Today there are about 10,000 madrasses. They generally don’t teach anything useful. they just teach islamic claptrap and serve as recruiting grounds for the jihadists.
they’re all funded by the gulf arabs. but take take away the gulf arabs money—and these maddrasses will wither up and die.
no more new jihadists can come into play.
This may sound odd and wierd strategic plan to most here. But the cold war with russia was also fought in the same way. This was called the containment policy. the policy was devised in 1948 and the fruits of the policy came in 1990 with the fall of the soviet union. The whole point of the containment policy was just to keep the soviet empire from expanding. The policy’s formulator, George Kennon simply belived that communism was a bogus economic system. That it would eventually collapse of its own weight—if and only if—it were prevented from expanding.
So that’s what the USA did for 50 years. Kept the Soviet Union from expanding further. Finally it collapsed. Just as kennon said it would.
Same goes for the Jihad war in the middle east. Strategic victory will be achieved by collapsing the cost of oil.
I agree. Most of the Arab countries have to buy off their people and mercenaries. I don’t think that Iraq is going to dump oil on the market to help us. There is a number they have in mind for how much they want for their oil. They’d rather get that money by selling less oil at a higher price. That’s why our new oil fields are so important. They don’t have the transportation costs that the Arabs do.
Liberated Iraq calls on Arab states to use oil as ‘weapon’ against U.S.
A top Iraqi diplomat urged Arab states to use the weapon of oil against the United States because of its alliance with Israel, raising more questions about the Middle Eastern nation’s allegiance to the country that freed it from a ruthless dictatorship.
The shocking statement from a democratic government in power only after the U.S. and allies ousted murderous dictator Saddam Hussein in a costly and bloody war laid bare the Middle Eastern nations true allegiance.
“Iraq will invite (Arab) ministers to use the weapon of oil, with the aim of asserting real pressure on the United States and whoever stands with Israel,” Qais al-Azzawy told reporters in Cairo on Friday.
“Iraq will invite (Arab) ministers to use the weapon of oil, with the aim of asserting real pressure on the United States and whoever stands with Israel.”
- Iraqi diplomat
“The economic weapon is the strongest one to be put into effect now, to assure of standing by the Palestinian people, in light of there being no military power that can stand in the face of Israel at the present time, he added.
Iraq and Iran form alliance within Opec
Iran and Iraq are forming a strengthening alliance inside Opec, raising concerns among moderate Arab Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia and increasing the potential for discord in the oil producers group.
With the EU sovereign debt crisis worsening and growing fears for the global economy, the deep divisions within Opec risk undermining the organisations ability to do its job of effectively managing oil supply and preventing violent price swings.
On this story
Opec keeps oil production ceiling
Rise in US oil supplies haunts Opec talks
Lex Oil price
Comment Algeria is Opecs new über hawk
Opecs price hawks press Saudis on output
On this topic
Opec head warns of oil price volatility
Opec agrees to maintain output levels
IEA urges Opec to maintain supplies
Lex IEA versus Opec
IN Oil & Gas
Chevron seeks probe over Ecuador case
Total and Sinopec agree Nigeria oil deal
BP eyes Russia cash for buyback
Nigerian minister considers pouring oil on troubled waters
A person familiar with the matter said Opecs meeting in Vienna on Thursday was overshadowed by strong disagreements over issues ranging from the acceptable price of oil, to the global supply-demand balance, to who should replace the current secretary general of the organisation.
A particular bone of contention was a proposal by Venezuela backed by other Opec hardliners like Iran, Iraq and Algeria that the group should protest against the EU sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear programme. The move was rebuffed by Saudi Arabia and other moderates including Nigeria, Libya and Kuwait, who argued that such protests were the preserve of foreign ministers, not oil ministers.
If they all want a war against the US we should shut the straits ourselves, permanently. Never trust koranimals.
The Bushes serve many masters.
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