[danielmryan]

Beyond these impoverished countries in the east however, I could never see these kinds of people turning, let’s say Sweden, into an autocracy. I just don’t think the conditions could get to that stage unless something truly catastrophic happens, like an overnight collapse of the world economy. If totalitarian regimes seize control in Hungary or Greece, it won’t have much of an impact on the world. If it happens in France or Spain, then we can get a little worried.

Thanks for bringing up France. While I was away on caregiving duty, I mulled this scenario over. I'm only being speculative here - in a way, I'm going from out on a limb to out on a sub-branch - but here's how I think it could play out:

Golden Dawn gets into power and is inaugurated with a global firestorm of anger and fear. As time goes on, though, GD does govern like Mussolini. There's tyranny but no real terror. Most of the people who expected Hitler II seriously wonder if they overreacted.

With apologists using GD as a soother, a neo-Falagist government takes over Spain. Again, the same worldwide shock and anger - followed by...not that much. As with Greece, Spanish fascism seems to be little more than jailing a few thousand dissidents and compulsory calisthenics writ large. Again, most of the people who raised the hue and cry seriously wonder if they've overreacted. And this time, the hue-cryers are fewer. In genteel company, fascism is once again being referred to as the "Third Way."

Then, France. Right now, because of guilt over Vichy, French people largely take the "surrender monkey" comments in stride. But imagine what would happen if they see GD and neo-Falangist governing fascistically with little bloodshed. They take a look at their straitened prospects, look at the Muslim enclaves, look at Greece and Spain, and start asking themselves:

"Why are we, le pays de Napoléon, la France being treated with such open disdain?"

At that point, I'd worry. A lot. Recent history has lulled us right now to the fact that France was militarily aggressive in its heyday.

[Viennacon]

Yes, France may yet be the biggest surprise. After all, they currently have a socialist president who is destroying France’s economy. They just got downgraded... again. It would be interesting to see how a conflict in Europe might play out with Germany and France reversing their WWII roles. Not counting the US presence, Germany has a relatively small military, and how much longer can we afford to keep that presence in Germany? With President Bongo leading us “forward”, I doubt we’ll even be able to maintain our bases in South Korea, let alone Germany.

It’s amazing to think how quickly this illusion of a “global village” where we all get along could come crashing down with just one small shove. That shove might just be a war between Israel and Iran, the shutting down of the strait, and the economic implications that it would entail.

Despite TOTUS’ destruction of the job market, there’s one career in the coming decades that I guarantee will be stable. War correspondence. Sad times. :(