Fed dilemma: growth vs. inflation

telegram.com ^ | Sunday, December 23, 2012 | Robert Samuelson

[BenLurkin]

The Fed was in over its head. It didn't know enough to do what it (and many others) thought it could do. Today's problem is similar. Although the Fed has learned much since the 1970s, including the importance of low inflation, its economic understanding and powers are still limited. It can't predictably hit a given mix of unemployment and inflation. Striving to do so risks dangerous side effects, including a future financial crisis.

For proof of the Fed's limits, look to the Fed itself. Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, which the Fed didn't anticipate or prevent, it has repeatedly miscalculated. It's made heroic efforts to revive the economy, including keeping short-term interest rates near zero since late 2008 and pumping out more than $2 trillion by buying mortgage bonds and U.S. Treasury securities. But as Chairman Ben Bernanke conceded last week, the Fed has consistently overestimated the recovery's strength. Even if the Fed's policies were right, their impact has been exaggerated.

Throwing money at the economy has produced only modest gains. The money paid out to buy bonds has aimed, through reinvestment in the stock and bond markets, to boost stock prices and lower interest rates on other bonds. These changes are intended to stimulate spending. Many economists agree that more can be done. “Is the Fed running out of steam? To some extent,” says Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics. “But interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages are 3.35 percent. They could be lower.”

[BfloGuy]

In reality [ville] there is no dilemma. The Fed can only create inflation. It has no magic powers to create jobs.

The Fed's mission should be to maintain a stable currency. Of course, we could do that without a central bank at all.

[null and void]

In reality [ville] there is no dilemma. The Fed can only create inflation. It has no magic powers to create jobs.

In realityville there is no dilemma. Obama wants zero non-government employment, AND hyperinflation.

It's a model that works so well in his native Africa...

[blam]

Celente at it again:

GERALD CELENTE: The Financial Collapse Of 2013 Will Be Worse Than The Great Depression

[mjp]

It can't predictably hit a given mix of unemployment and inflation. Striving to do so risks dangerous side effects, including a future financial crisis.

In a free country, a sane full employment policy is a free market in labor and a money system based on 100% gold and silver reserves. In setting the stage for a financial contraction, inflation is the leading underlying cause of mass unemployment. Trying to cure unemployment with inflation is like trying to cure withdrawal symptoms by giving a drug addict more and more of the drug that he is addicted to.

[captmar-vell]

bernanke’s concern is propping up the banks and keeping wall street happy,

folks just wanting to save money away in a bank for their retirement are having their purchasing power stolen away with these manipulations,

the feds message to the middle class: put your life savings into the stock market, which will prop up the 401ks and thereby support (again) their crony too-big to fail banks,

rinse and repeat,

this is all they’ve got and their taking care of their own,

how long can this economic model really continue? one year or forty? I have no idea, but one day this scheme will fail and it wont take another lifetime to get there imho,

we all should be considering and planning for our families for when it does.

[mikrofon]

Growth cannot be managed by the Fed, only stifled ... printing more “play money” has no long-lasting effect on building a truly healthy economy.

[JoeFromSidney]

The Phillips Curve" tradeoff between inflation and unemployment has long since been disproven. There is no tradeoff. Inflation is always bad. Bernanke is barking up the wrong tree.