Granted, those making the guesses are educated in the science but the chances of hitting the nail on the head is still a long shot.
It would appear, what with all of the headlines regarding the massive amount of folks with influenza this year, the flu shot is irrelevant.
Of course, one thing to take into account is how lax in personal hygiene people are thinking that they don't need to take extra precaution, they've had their flu shot so they through caution to the wind. This reminds me of people that drive like idiots thinking that they are protected with seat belts and air bags!