Increases in taxes drag GDP. Decreases in government spending drag GDP. This is not politics. It is math.
GDP = Personal Consumption (decreases if taxes increased) + Investment + Government Spending + (Exports - Imports)
There is one item NO ONE HAS INCLUDED in their analysis.
The “millionaire’s tax” of 2 weeks ago will be $60 Billion in 2013.
The Payroll tax rise will be about 140 Billion in 2013.
The Sequester is slated to be $110 Billion in 2013.
Those sum to 310 B which divided by 15.3T GDP is 2.1% drag on GDP.
The one thing no one has included is that the Aug 2011 debt ceiling deal was 2.2 Trillion ceiling increase for 2.2 Trillion in spending cuts, with 1 Trillion of it immediate and 1.2 Trillion in the Sequester. No One Has Included That First 1 Trillion In Their Calculations. That number was backloaded. Obama would not allow it in FY 2012 for the election. It’s 1 T over 10 yrs with the first year 2 Billion.
So there’s an extra approximately $100 Billion reduced in 2013 vs 2012. This is additional GDP drag of 0.1 / 15.3T = 0.6% of GDP.
This summation of 2.7% is each year of the next 9 years.
GDP is more than your short term formula. The main reason we don't have a real recovery this time (or after 2000 for that matter) is people who mistakenly believe that increasing consumer spending leads to more investment. But sustainable recovery requires some reductions in consumption along with investment which has been suppressed due to asinine Fed policies that are mostly aimed at providing low interest rates for more federal borrowing.
Also different kinds of taxes affect investment more. The millionaires tax kills the long term viability of the economy by discouraging investment, The payroll increase has no such deleterious effect.