I must correct myself, with 75 percent of the vote counted, Likud + Jewish Home + Shas + UTJ is only 60! This is because the most recent tabulations favored the Arab parties and also put Kadima over the threshold (2 percent). We’ll see how this plays out, but I doubt all three center parties (Lapid’s, Livni’s and Kadima) would agree to a coalition with the Left block and the Arab block. I’m sure Netanyahu will be able to coax one of them to join with him.
He has to bring in at least Yesh Atid. No Jewish Zionist party will ever bring the Arabs into a coalition so constructing a center-left government without the religious parties and Bayit Yehudi is mathematically impossible.
Kadima and the Arab gains come at the expense of the rest of the Left.
The fact is a 33-34 seats, the Likud has nearly twice as many seats as the rest of the field combined and it will be tasked to form another government.
With 96 percent of the vote, the right-wing bloc is at 60 seats. We will see how the remaining 4 percent come in. We’ll know this in one day.
If Kadima holds on to its 2 percent, their two MKs should be amenable joining the right-wing block. #1 on the Kadima list is a former member of Likud, and #2 is a former member of Yisrael Beiteinu. Having said this, Kadima has always seemed to attract people with an exaggerated opinion of themselves. They are simply difficult to deal with. And, my goodness, two votes! Hardly any protection from disgruntled back-benchers taking down the government.
If Kadima falls below 2 percent, I am thinking Likud as the largest party will pick up 1 seat and Shas, which lost a seat to an Arab party in the most recent adjustment, will pick up the other. I am sure this is Bibi’s preferred scenario.
After the voting was concluded, Netanyahu indicated a desire to work with Lapid. Netanyahu also said re-visiting the exception from military service will be a key part of his next government. Likud + Jewish Home + Yesh Atid would be a majority, and Shas and UJT could not bargain with Labor for a better deal. Shas and UJT would therefore join with Netanyahu even though the exemption will be re-visited, to keep from getting a worse deal.
The result if Netanyahu and Lapid work this out, would be a robust majority. If Netanyahu and Lapid don’t work this out, we’re talking about such possibilities as a two-vote majority, dealing with Kadima, and having to cave-in the Shas and UTJ on the exemption issue. What a headache!