Kadima is still barely hanging on to their 2 seats. If they fall below the 2% threshold then their votes will be distributed equally among the parties.
With 90 percent of votes counted:
Likud-Beytenu 31
Yesh Atid 19
Labor 15
Shas 12
Jewish Home 11
United Torah Judaism 7
Hatnua 6
Meretz 6
Hadash 4
Ra’am Ta’al 4
Balad 3
Kadima 2
Kadima could well be good as gone.
Centrist parties in Israel have rarely lasted more than one election. Kadima was largely the personal vehicle for Sharon and opportunitists in the Likud who jumped ship with him and it failed to survive his demise on the political scene.
Yesh Atid is already overvalued stock. Yair Lapid is a rookie politician. By the time the next elections roll around, his party may too go the way of Kadima, as its a novelty vehicle built around a famous celebrity.