And yet it's because of this possibility, exceptional though it might be, that the big companies are able to intimidate and extort the small farmers. But it needn't simply be soybeans: it could be corn, apples, heck anything.
But, let's assume that the chances were 50-50 [...]
You are concentrating on one thing: stupid soybeans.
That is not the issue at hand; the issue is: these companies are laying a [legal] groundwork to seize control of food production at the lowest levels. -- Indeed to even make traditional [heirloom] plantings a liability.
Commerical seed companies so dominate the market for farm crop seed because their product is so far superior to heirloom seeds that, with the exception of some silage corn, no serious farmer plants open pollinated seed, not because of some nefarious conspiracy.
In the 1930's my grandfather, who in virtually every respect was a better farmer than I, could expect a yield of about 25 bushels per acre from heirloom open pollinated corn; on the same field, I now obtain 200 bushels per acre with triple stacked hybrids.