Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Public opinion could sway Supreme Courtís ruling on gay marriage
Los Angeles Times ^ | March 1, 2013, 5:14 p.m. | David G. Savage, Washington Bureau

Posted on 03/02/2013 11:43:19 AM PST by Olog-hai

Public opinion on marriage for gay and lesbian couples has shifted with almost unprecedented speed since California voters banned such unions in 2008.

That shift could influence the Supreme Court, in particular Justice Anthony M. Kennedy and possibly Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., as it decides whether to uphold Proposition 8 in coming months. …

Kennedy, along with others on the court, probably would also resist going too fast. The current justices, both liberals and conservatives, say the court of the early 1970s made a mistake by striking down all state laws on abortion and capital punishment. Both decisions appeared to trigger a backlash, and the death penalty was soon restored to law.

Better to move in line with—or just slightly ahead of—shifting opinion, they believe. …

(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Philosophy; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: gaymarriage; gaystapo; homofascists; homosexualagenda; lavendermafia; pedophiles; scotus; sodomhusseinobama
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-53 next last
Sure, let’s trash the rule of law for the rule of so-called “public opinion”, and not even the true opinion of the public.
1 posted on 03/02/2013 11:43:29 AM PST by Olog-hai
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

The only change is the way you conducted your poll.. How about the real polls about Abortion, they have changed drastically, but that doesn’t count.. Go Figger.. :)


2 posted on 03/02/2013 11:47:42 AM PST by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Why the heck does public opinion matter at all?

Public opinion would be reflected in the legislation on homosexual marriage, but not in court rulings. For example, three states voted for homosexual marriage in November, but 32 states, an overwhelming majority, have amended their constitutions to define marriage.

The legislature of New York and a couple of other states voted to allow homosexual marriage. Again, this is where public opinion is expressed, by who is elected, and the views of our elected representatives.

So, do we make laws through political correctness, public opinion polls, and court rulings?

A court has no business acting as a legislature or sounding out public opinion, in determining if our marriage laws are constitutional. The laws in question need to be measured against the constitution, not some public opinion poll.


3 posted on 03/02/2013 11:57:40 AM PST by Dilbert San Diego
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dilbert San Diego
exactly.

If public opinion shifts such that 3/4 of the people want to change the constitution.. then more power to them. Until then, it's not the SC’s job to change the constitution only to interpret it.

4 posted on 03/02/2013 12:00:08 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

I don’t know.

When’s the last time they teach that we are a nation of laws/rules?

From I glean from the tidbits in colleges/schools, it is all about swaying (or what they call, leading) public opinions towards the ‘correct thinking’.


5 posted on 03/02/2013 12:00:23 PM PST by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = CCCP; JournOList + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dilbert San Diego
Your comments were pretty much what I was going to say, you said it well. The people of California have already spoken, no court should be able to change the expressed will of the people.
6 posted on 03/02/2013 12:03:13 PM PST by Graybeard58 (_.. ._. .. _. _._ __ ___ ._. . ___ ..._ ._ ._.. _ .. _. .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai
"Public opinion"? These people are appointed for life so they will NOT be swayed by such things as "public opinion".

Our form of government has turned too far to the "democracy" side and is in grave danger of losing its constitutional aspect altogether. IOW, our government is collapsing. Obama's plan, no less!

7 posted on 03/02/2013 12:04:03 PM PST by jeffc (The U.S. media are our enemy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

My hope-o-meter is down to zero, when it comes to the Supreme Court.


8 posted on 03/02/2013 12:07:32 PM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jeffc

One of the goals in the Communist Manifesto (the “first step in the revolution”, per Chapter 2) was to “win the battle of democracy”, now that you bring that up.


9 posted on 03/02/2013 12:08:15 PM PST by Olog-hai
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: carlo3b

add in obamacare as well....


10 posted on 03/02/2013 12:11:59 PM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Graybeard58

Thank you. It just stuns me that public opinion polls are said to be in the mix of a court decision on whether our marriage laws are constitutional.


11 posted on 03/02/2013 12:16:20 PM PST by Dilbert San Diego
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai
" It is not our job to protect the people from the consequences of their political choices.” - Chief Justice John Roberts, July 2012
12 posted on 03/02/2013 12:17:56 PM PST by Bratch
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai
what!...
first..0'ButtPlug's DeathCARE
now...his Queers' Holiday

more from John "Benedict Arnold" Robert's betrayals to the Republic
(all b/c he wants to be loved by the E$tabli$hment$' media)


13 posted on 03/02/2013 12:26:29 PM PST by skinkinthegrass (who'll take tomorrow,$pend it all today;who can take your income,tax it all away..0'Blowfly can :-)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

The democrats are now a barely restrained Lynch Mob.


14 posted on 03/02/2013 12:27:12 PM PST by SWAMPSNIPER (The Second Amendment, a Matter of Fact, Not a Matter of Opinion)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: carlo3b
it's polling itself that's failed.

PEW Research reported last May that just about all the random sample pollsters (and even those with pre-selected polling groups) are down to a 9% response rate.

That means if you call 1000 people, you end up with just 90 of them providing you a response.

That's 1 out of 11.

A big part of the problem is that people just don't respond to calls from pollsters ~ after all, being commercial operations they have to send a signal to your phone telling you who they are ~ and you don't respond!

The problem at this point is that minority groups within the population can seize the day and take over the polling results simply by answering the phone.

Here's the way it works. Call that 1000 people your computer sampled for you. Let's say there's a group that's only 5% of the population and they always answer the pollster calls. You will get 50 of them!

. The other 95% only answer and responded at the 9% rate ~ which means they will represent only 8.55% of the total or 86 respondents.

As you can see that 5% now represents 37% of the responses, and the 95% has dropped to a here 63%~

If it's a Presidential preference poll, you'd expect something in the order of 50/50, but here'd you have 63/37!

You could be easily misled into thinking a Romacain was winning and a Gobama was losing.

Gee, that happened didn't it.

This also addresses the reason why Gallup thinks there are 3.4% gays out there ~ they asked all their subjects that question for the last year ~ and of course all the gay guys knew that! The real answer is more like .34% are gay ~ or 1/10 less BTW.

15 posted on 03/02/2013 12:28:45 PM PST by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Public opinion shouldn’t matter a hill of beans.

The wolves have all voted that you are for dinner.


16 posted on 03/02/2013 12:29:57 PM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Unfortunately the article is spot on.


17 posted on 03/02/2013 12:32:59 PM PST by OKRA2012
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Yeah, it really did wonders for Obamacare!!!


18 posted on 03/02/2013 12:41:21 PM PST by PROTESTBYPROXY (Invictus Maneo !!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Yeah, it really did wonders for Obamacare!!!


19 posted on 03/02/2013 12:41:21 PM PST by PROTESTBYPROXY (Invictus Maneo !!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Yeah, it really did wonders for Obamacare!!!


20 posted on 03/02/2013 12:41:35 PM PST by PROTESTBYPROXY (Invictus Maneo !!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Yeah public opinion. If we went with public opinion we never would have had a war for independence. The nation was bout 1/3 Tory,1/3 Rebelling Colonists, an 1/3 living out in hinterlands and not really caring one way or the other.
The day public opinion sways Constitutional law we are in trouble...well heck we are already in trouble since we are discussing it.
Freegards
LEX


21 posted on 03/02/2013 12:41:35 PM PST by lexington minuteman 1775
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Yeah, it really did wonders for Obamacare!!!


22 posted on 03/02/2013 12:41:50 PM PST by PROTESTBYPROXY (Invictus Maneo !!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: muawiyah

Your analysis or Response Rates is quite accurate.

However, you do not mention the requirement of pollsters to meet every quota cell in the sample universe.

Therefore, if the pollster is conducting a poll in an area where 10% of the population is black female between the ages of 29 and 39 with a college, and living in a household making between 50 and 59 thousand a year, the poll is not complete until that quota cell is filled.

Polling in an accurate science and all you need to do is look at recent elections and you will see that most polls fall within the margin of error.


23 posted on 03/02/2013 12:43:20 PM PST by OKRA2012
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: PROTESTBYPROXY

Public opinion? HAH! The pirate Roberts will vote as he is told to vote, or his secrets will be exposed. Public opinion be damned.


24 posted on 03/02/2013 12:43:30 PM PST by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai
thank you...
25 posted on 03/02/2013 12:45:06 PM PST by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Public opinion on marriage for gay and lesbian couples has shifted with almost unprecedented speed since California voters banned such unions in 2008.

That shift could influence the Supreme Court, in particular Justice Anthony M. Kennedy and possibly Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., as it decides whether to uphold Proposition 8 in coming months. …

If that’s true then they aren’t fit to sit on any bench let alone the US Supreme Court.


26 posted on 03/02/2013 12:57:29 PM PST by freedomfiter2 (Brutal acts of commission and yawning acts of omission both strengthen the hand of the devil.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai
Warning! Do Not Play With Queers.

You Could End Up Like Biscuit.


27 posted on 03/02/2013 12:58:26 PM PST by Iron Munro (I miss America, don't you?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Public opinion was once very much in favor of slavery.


28 posted on 03/02/2013 1:05:56 PM PST by Mygirlsmom (Where the heck are we going, and what are we doing in this handbasket???)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OKRA2012
you are assuming that a pollster has an infinite supply of money ~

The problem with a sampling universe in this is far more complex than raw numbers ~ when you are down to a 9% response rate from the public at large you have to give up all those additional factors ~ else you'd have to call hundreds of thousands of phones, and when that happens the influence of respondents with multiple phone lines grows ~ which it may well have in Romney's case ~ (the rich have more phone numbers than the poor and middle class ~ and even then we found ourselves with 5 active numbers!).

The pollsters ~ who are not as stupid as we imagine ~ stepped back and began running what can only be called AUGURIES!

I think some of my original Freeper posts on AUGURIES are still accessible through Google.com by asking for FREEREPUBLIC MUAWIYAH AUGURIES.

Except for pre-selected targets I"m afraid random sampling polling may be a dying art. There are other methods that need to be brought to play.

29 posted on 03/02/2013 1:14:49 PM PST by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: muawiyah

That accounts for the totally inaccurate polls I’ve seem lately, but not for the decline in morality that I have witnessed in today’s culture..

My own sons recently went through college and came home with views that are vastly different than they were when they left home.. They both told me that the overwhelming, and sole views being accepted in higher education forbids any countervailing attitudes toward Gay, Abortion, Cultural and Religion, will be met with scorn and or banishment..

This punishment was liberally dealt out by the entire academic community, but most surprising of all, was the vehement rejection of any level of civility, and morality, that came from the women and girls in their classes.. The decay that we find in our culture has a foothold in the females among us..

The former buttress within a family against the unholy, our former gatekeepers, are now becoming the perpetrators of evil that has overtaken the culture, and will ultimately signal our decline..

We men are becoming weak and without shame.. Men are not at all blameless, and equally at fault, but the single thread that held the fabric of our society together, were and continues to be, our Mothers.. If and apparently when this seam fails, so well we all...


30 posted on 03/02/2013 2:08:45 PM PST by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: SWAMPSNIPER

Ironically, the lynch mob is led by blacks. Ninety five percent of them voted for Obama. If that isn’t a mob, nothing is.


31 posted on 03/02/2013 2:31:59 PM PST by heye2monn
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai
The public already thinks that 25% of the population is gay. If they find out that the actual number is closer to 3%, would they still think the same thing?

-PJ

32 posted on 03/02/2013 2:40:21 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

So say the pink journalistas. Why should I believe anything Anderson Pooper, Andrew Sullivan, or anything any of the other closets rump thumpers say on this issue? They have a stick in the game that they don’t reveal to the home audience.

I tuned out the Pravda Media long ago.


33 posted on 03/02/2013 2:57:19 PM PST by a fool in paradise (America 2013 - STUCK ON STUPID)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai
...let’s trash the rule of law for the rule of so-called “public opinion”, and not even the true opinion of the public.

Craig's List has job offers listed by Democrats looking for paid 'rent a crowd' "protesters"...

Rachael Maddow hires shills to pretend on Twitter that they're real people - praising her!

Rush Limbaugh get fake calls from dems pretending to be Republicans...

...and the Supreme Court is stupid enough to think 'public opinion' is real? Gimme a break ... ONLY democrats are stupid enough to buy that bullsh*t ...

34 posted on 03/02/2013 3:05:49 PM PST by GOPJ (To be free is to own one's risk - Jonathan Levy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: muawiyah
You could be easily misled into thinking a Romacain was winning and a Gobama was losing.

Yeah, except nobody who actually read the polls thought that. The polls had Obama all the way. Only the people who didn't like what the polls were saying bought into the whole "unskewed polls" nonsense.

I agree that public opinion polls ought to have no bearing on Supreme Court decisions, but they do on political strategy, so it's important that we don't pretend they can be as accurate as they can be. This is all too important to bury our heads in the sand.
35 posted on 03/02/2013 3:27:16 PM PST by highball ("I never should have switched from scotch to martinis." -- the last words of Humphrey Bogart)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Public opinion didn’t seem to matter much when ObamaCare was before the Court.


36 posted on 03/02/2013 3:33:09 PM PST by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: muawiyah

Sampling strategies will be altered once it is proven that current strategies are faulty. However, current strategies are for them most part accurate as polling prior to the 2012 election was within the margin of error.


37 posted on 03/02/2013 3:48:53 PM PST by OKRA2012
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: jeffc

Notice Democrats love of democracy fails when the voters don’t agree with them.


38 posted on 03/02/2013 3:59:01 PM PST by newzjunkey (bah)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: newzjunkey
Notice Democrats love of democracy fails when the voters don’t agree with them.

Yeah. Then they turn to the courts. And they always seem able to find a sympathetic judge!!

39 posted on 03/02/2013 4:10:29 PM PST by jeffc (The U.S. media are our enemy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: OKRA2012
They've been doing Auguries for a number of years ~

Sure, they describe it as supplementary analysis and inormation, but that's what the Roman Augurs called it too ~ gossip, innueno, bird poop on the courtyard!!!!!

It hasn't changed. But the polling methods in use for the last 50 years MUST change!

40 posted on 03/02/2013 6:39:16 PM PST by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: Political Junkie Too
it's closer to .003, not .03 ~ Gallup went out and polled against the error and the gays did what was needed to get overreported!

Notice that depending on where Gallup polled, they got fewer gays ~ that's because gays are NOT evenly distributed geographically ~ they are concentrated in cities!

That, BTW, is the only correct part of the survey!

41 posted on 03/02/2013 6:51:46 PM PST by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: muawiyah

And polling is almost always accurate and within the margin of error.

As for the poll in California, I suspect it is accurate to within 4 points.

At the very best, maybe 56% of the people in CA are supportive of gay marriage.

Of the bad options that exist, it would be better for the voters to overturn Prop 8 than for the SCOTUS.


42 posted on 03/02/2013 8:04:28 PM PST by OKRA2012
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

No, the Supreme Court, and Roberts in particular, will uphold the will and vote of the people on the basis that he will not want to shield politicians and the gay community from the political consequences of the voting electorate.

Wasn’t that his rationale in the Healthcare ruling, that election results have consequences, and those consequences must be endured?


43 posted on 03/02/2013 10:19:39 PM PST by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: muawiyah
it's closer to .003, not .03 ~ Gallup went out and polled against the error and the gays did what was needed to get overreported!

I was recalling the Gallup poll when I made my post.

You are way off. My number is closer to the actual than yours.

Shocking Gallup Poll: Average American Thinks 25 Percent of Country Is ‘Gay’


Do you really think we are having a sane societal debate on anything homosexuality-related when the typical Americans thinks that 25 percent — yes, 25 percent – of the country is “gay”?

[snip]

Only 4 percent of all those surveyed in 2011 and about 8 percent of those surveyed in 2002 correctly guessed that fewer than 5 percent of Americans identify as gay or lesbian... The Williams Institute at UCLA School of Law, a gay and lesbian think tank, released a study in April 2011 estimating based on its research that just 1.7 percent of Americans between 18 and 44 identify as gay or lesbian, while another 1.8 percent — predominantly women — identify as bisexual... A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention survey of women between 22 and 44 that questioned more than 13,500 respondents between 2006 and 2008 found very similar numbers: Only 1 percent of the women identified themselves as gay, while 4 percent identified as bisexual."


-PJ

44 posted on 03/03/2013 12:27:58 AM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Yeah, that’s it.
The Supreme Court is supposed to ignore that silly old parchment called “The Constitution” and rule based on the chic political correctness of the day.
That’s the ticket!


45 posted on 03/03/2013 1:01:44 AM PST by Lancey Howard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Political Junkie Too
one well known phenomenon which is not regularly reported by the pollsters in these matters is that about half those asked if they are homosexual WILL NOT ANSWER.

They won't answer most other sex related questions either.

The pollsters almost invariably count such answers as being non-answers and they drop the respondents from the statistical base. That has the effect of doubling the homosexual answer.

The Gallup poll erred in making their practice known ~ and they got the sort of response you'd expect if a small group ALWAYS answered the phone (or did a pollster call back) and the larger group only responded at 9% of the time.

There's also a bias where wealthier Americans have more phone numbers and are more likely to be selected by a pollster ~ if a random number dialer is in use. That's the same sort of problem that had pollsters telling us Dewey had beaten Truman.

People who are issued cellphone service by their employers are also easily overrepresented in any telephone poll.

Again, pollsters substitute for these deficiencies in modern random sample polling with older methods ~ see AUGERIES ~ and simple rationalization.

I watched primary numbers. Where no one was much interested, they didn't show up to vote for the guy in the Fall either. Sure, there's not a lot of precision in that sort of analysis, but it gives you a trendline.

46 posted on 03/03/2013 4:35:25 AM PST by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: Political Junkie Too

BTW, that’s a single poll. Gallup asked every respondent in 2012 if he or she was gay ~ they reported an aggregate response.


47 posted on 03/03/2013 4:37:31 AM PST by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: Olog-hai

Yep - “public opinion” is what is killing us and a big reason why we were founded as a Representative Republic instead of a democracy - P.T. Barnum explained the rest.


48 posted on 03/03/2013 5:12:28 AM PST by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: muawiyah
I'm not disputing your reasoning, but did Gallup publish a correction or are you correcting it for them?

-PJ

49 posted on 03/03/2013 11:53:54 AM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: Political Junkie Too
What?

The discussion of the interplay between PEW's discovery (9% response) and Gallup' practice of the last year regarding gays can be found on a number of FR boards ~ since early last Fall.

Gallup made no adustments to account for the effect ~ just raw data ~ it must be normalized to make any sense.

There are less than 1% gay folks around ~

50 posted on 03/03/2013 5:03:51 PM PST by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-53 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson