Replies

I heartily advise people to not touch copper with a 10-foot pole, as it has long been a totally controlled market, that does not want outsiders profiting from it.

To cite a very good example, remember when the US went from thick copper cables to fiber optic? It ended up with enough surplus copper to build half a dozen aircraft carriers entirely out of pure copper. And what happened to the price of copper? Nothing. All that copper never reentered the market.

Sure, if you want to nickel and dime copper, feel free. But stay away from ambitious investments in it, or you will get cleaned out.

You've provided some of the analysis of the fundamentals I was looking for, to confirm the technical market analysis in the article. The technical analysis in the article does indicate a bearish market opinion about copper -- but, what do the fundamentals say?

I used to live in a copper-mining district & made the same point as you, about the switch from copper to fiber optic cable -- but, never considered that the market could be controlled. Can you point us to some solid evidence of the hoarding that would be necessary to control market prices that way. I know that the (jewel-quality) diamond market is controlled -- but, that gambit hasn't worked out very well in other commodities markets. (Recall the Hunt Bros. and silver?)

Another factor to consider is the switch from wired to wireless telephony. That may not have nearly as large an effect on copper demand in the developed world, as the switch to fiber optic cable; but, it seems to be effectively eliminating most opportunities to grow the market in the third world. Under-developed countries are installing wireless networks, and completely leapfrogging wired communications technology.

On the other hand; electric vehicles could boost demand for copper (when and if they ever become economically viable). Similarly, demand for electric generators of all types is set to continue growing.

Another source of demand for copper was created at about the time that fiber optic cables weakened demand for communications -- home wiring. For a time, it looked like aluminum was a viable substitute for copper wiring. Then, it became obvious that aluminum wiring was hazardous, and most people went back to using copper wiring.

The same could be said for many other uses of copper. There will always be substitution at the margin (as in any market). If the price of copper goes down, the demand will go up, and vice versa, because of the substitution effects.