Posted on 03/19/2013 1:16:37 PM PDT by SMGFan
Three weeks ago, I discussed whether the House is likely to flip control next year by looking at historical trends and “big picture” questions. Those trends show that the Democrats’ task is a challenging one.
But as the past two cycles have shown, rules are made to be broken. So now, it’s time to get into the weeds to see where the two parties stand at the beginning of a cycle that undoubtedly has many twists and turns ahead of it. Democrats need to net 17 seats next year to reach a 218-seat majority in the House.
Democratic operatives identify 30 House Republicans who won by less than 10 points last year and assert that the margin makes them vulnerable in 2014. But the GOP incumbents who won by less than 10 points didn’t start, or end, at the same place last cycle.
(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...
I am looking for outlook for Senate races 2014. Cookpolitical is fee based.
For what is left of the Republic, the House better not become Democrat...and the Senate less so.
If Cotton runs in 2014 in AR, that will be a GOP (Tea Party) pick up.
I have no idea, but I know as a group, the American public is dumb as a door knob. So, anything could happen.
The Democrats have to be favored to win the House. What issue could they hope to win. In 2010, there was strong opposition to Obama. That opposition doesn’t seem to be a factor anymore. Opposition to Obamacare by elected Republicans wimpered out. Elected Republicans who were stronlgy opposed to Romneycare in 2010 have dropped that opposition. Boehner is passing Obama legislation against a alrge junction of the House GOP. They have no issues, fiscal, social, or security to run on.
It’s no secret that the regime is converting OFA (the successful Obama campaign machine) to attack the House races in 2014. This includes the BIG money donors.
I think Dems were overconfident in 2010 and were ambushed. This time will be more of a struggle.
Exactly. We are where we are because our people are, increasingly shallow, petty, corrupt, and irreverent. Such a nation can never stay free and healthy.
Didn't they lose 63 seats?
Dems did lose 63 seats.
Which led Republicans to be overconfident going into the POTUS election in 012.
You identified the only way it switches. I believe it to be highly unlikely. Redistricting left few seats that can switch. The only caveat is if the Republicans blow it with their base, and we just don’t show up. For me, the fear of a final two years under Obama with a Democrat majority is enough for me to show up. If our guys remain pathetically weak over the next year, I might just not care enough anymore, though.
The article doesn’t seem to discuss which Dems that only won election by less than a 10% margin are vulnerable.
Fair and balanced, right?
What needs to be done is to get the tea party groups to organize for a candidate and support one person. Our kids future is at steak!!
foolish pro life groups will fight the candidate of pro gun groups in their typical sanctimonious fashion
Roll Call is another neo-Nazi media outlet designed to push the seditious rat party.
The roll call scribbler is trying to depress conservatives. If you meet him, rip his Nazi face off.
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