Posted on 04/02/2013 4:39:15 PM PDT by Jyotishi
China does not want the Taliban to dominate after the withdrawal of the US-led forces from Afghanistan. But it is also unwilling at this stage to be a caretaker in the region. It is keeping its cards close to the chest
China’s policy on Afghanistan consists of five Noes: No military role, no involvement in domestic economic and social order, no objection to Taliban in any legal power-sharing arrangement; no criticism of the US role; no participation in NDN (Northern Distribution Network).
From a recent visit to Beijing, it was clear that China has risen; and a new China is being built. It will continue rising till it overtakes the US to become the largest economy in the world — in Purchasing Power Parity by 2016, and in real terms by 2026.
As you arrive at Beijing’s international mega airport — a new one is being built — two slogans greet you. ‘China’s Century’ and ‘Smiling China’. China has reason to smile following an orderly political transition that will endure for a decade without defections. Only death can cause any disturbance. Unquestionably, President Xi Jinping is the second most powerful leader in the world and the first in China after Deng to hold the three top posts ab initio raising the question: Will he be the second Deng.
The other question on everyone’s lips is: Is China ready to assume a leadership role in Asia and internationally or become another Japan, seated at the High Table signing cheques? Already political pundits point to some of Mr Xi’s thoughts: Renewal of Chinese nation, promotion of core interests and — this one, problematic for peaceful rise — no longer hiding strength and biding time. In short, expect a more assertive China, shades of which we saw in the last five years in the South China Sea and on our northern borders. Singapore’s Mentor Minister Lee Kwan Yew, who understands China intimately, believes China will hide its strength and bide its time.
The brief interactions with Chinese think-tanks, members of a university and other Chinese and non-Chinese reveal that it is early yet to arrive at any conclusion on China’s leadership role in Asia and elsewhere. Incidentally, a very thin line divides the Track II from official policy in China. The sense we derived goes like this:
Only a few of our interlocutors were conscious that, outside, they are regarded as free riders. On Afghanistan, which is the hottest topic today besides Syria and Africa, the Chinese are very circumspect. First and foremost, they echo the predominant view that US and its allies must remain in Afghanistan till an orderly and responsible withdrawal becomes feasible and not leave it in a mess. Responsibility includes keeping commitments on funding of security and reconstruction projects. As for the burden of war, one view is that Beijing has been complicit in the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which it financed through the purchase of US bonds. It’s as candid as one can get.
The overall view that emerged with a slight exception was that China was neither ready nor willing to play a political or any high profile leadership and military role in Afghanistan as yet. The ‘as yet’ is my own understanding.
Beijing’s focus is and will remain on development, reconstruction and investment commensurate with the security situation in Afghanistan. The Chinese see a clear picture — clearer than is thought outside — of the political and security imperatives in Afghanistan, and since last year, they have taken a reinvigorated interest in the evolving internal situation. Beijing and Kabul signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement in end-2012 and are engaged along with Islamabad in two trilateral dialogues, but the mistrust between Kabul and Islamabad ostensibly conjoined brothers, is a legend.
China has a 92-km boundary with Afghanistan through the Wakhan panhandle which is treacherously dangerous terrain, without any road network. China worries about a spillover of terrorism, religious extremism and separatism from Pakistan and is seriously concerned about its internal stability. For the first time, the political leadership in Xinjiang accused Pakistan of exporting terror and Afghanistan of terrorist sanctuaries in its north.
On the political process of reconciliation in Afghanistan, China believes that the Taliban should reconcile, respect the Constitution and participate in elections (2014 and 2015), so that a power-sharing arrangement is in place before the withdrawal. On the reliability and durability of such an understanding, no views were expressed. Incidentally Chinese policy rejects reconciliation with terrorists.
India figured prominently in the dialogue, as lately China has sought a conversation between the two on Af-Pak. This follows last month’s Russia-India-China trialogue on Afghanistan at the level of National Security Advisers. Beijing has sought India-China cooperation in development, extraction of resources, regional integration through connectivity and other economic ventures. New Delhi will not be excited about such offers as it politely rejected American suggestions of similar joint projects in Afghanistan. It prefers bilateral socio-economic development ventures which have earned it the rating of the most popular foreign country amongst the Afghans.
Beijing believes that India-China cooperation may reduce Pakistan’s apprehensions about New Delhi’s activities in Afghanistan. “You have Chabahar in Iran, we have Gwadar in Pakistan. We could cooperate in building regional integration” — is the new idea. China’s focus is on development. Their specialists wax eloquent on the three-tier development concept, which is: Countries that neighbour Afghanistan take charge of development in its contiguous provinces; India and China undertake mega projects; and the international community honours its financial commitments on development. This concept is linked to China’s Western Area Development Plan encompassing Xinjiang.
Just to be provocative, the Chinese ask what India thought of China-Pakistan relations. That triggered off an avalanche from the sublime heights of Karakoram to the unfathomable depths of the Indian Ocean. The opportunity was not missed to tell them that their charade of the Three Wise Monkeys has to end. The parting shot was on needling China on assuming a leadership role in Afghanistan. The bait was taken though the remarks were attributed solely to the individual commentator. “Of course we can…through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation…with new rules…it would be a new ballgame”, they said. We were reminded about Russia’s discomfiture about the Chinese alleged interference in Central Asia.
The Afghan colleague in the discourse kept warning that Afghanistan should not become the battleground for US-Iran, India-Pakistan and US-China rivalries, leave alone any disharmony between Russia and China in the SCO. About a new leadership regional role in Afghanistan, China will not become a caretaker. It is hiding its intentions and biding its time. And, as the good free rider, trotting into the sunset.
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