ADP Data Brings Lower Expectations for Payrolls and Unemployment Friday

247wallst.com ^ | April 3, 2013 | Jon C. Ogg

[John W]

We already saw a less robust outlook from TrimTabs showing that estimated job growth for March was 156,000. That was up from its 100,000 job growth February estimate, but the report shows that actual job growth is significantly weaker than the Labor Department reported in the first quarter and not enough to reduce the rate of unemployment. Now we have the ADP report coming in much weaker at 158,000, versus 192,000 projected by Dow Jones, and projected to be 205,000 in new payrolls by Bloomberg. Ads by Google

These are merely preliminary attempts to benchmark the payrolls reports from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. We expect that some of the official estimates will come down, now that both TrimTabs and ADP have come in softer than what is expected by Friday’s BLS report.

Bloomberg shows that the formal estimate is still 193,000 in nonfarm payrolls, but that includes government workers. The private sector payrolls are expected to have grown by 200,000, and the formal unemployment rate is expected to come in flat month-over-month at 7.7%.

TrimTabs is not as widely followed as ADP, and ADP has a very mixed history of predicting jobs reports. That being said, we now expect that the official payrolls data may be ratcheted down slightly in the next 24 hours, ahead of the formal report.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Fortunately, this is Recovery Summer IV.

[John W]

Thank God for that. Otherwise I’d think we were just the fall of a house of cards away from total chaos and possible disaster.

[Wyatt's Torch]

ADP since 2003:

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

Ok that chart makes no sense. According to that in 08 we had no one employed plus another 800,000 further unemployed.

[Wyatt's Torch]

No that is the change in ADP payrolls... Today’s number was +158K

[Wyatt's Torch]

If you are looking for total employed (ADP private payrolls) here it is from FRED:

[woodenickel]

This news should be good for about 200 points on the DOW

[autumnraine]

I post this to every thread like this because I want people to know this information to spread to those who are touting an improved economy.

If you work just one hour during the ‘reference’ week, you are considered EMPLOYED.

[chuckles]

I kept wondering how most business I hear from are worried to death about ObamaCare and are either laying off, or not hiring. Many small business are cutting hours to part time. Last month, they bragged about 200k jobs, but anyone, even a child, could look at the numbers and full time decreased and part time increased. They are counting the part timers as jobs increased.

Then we see the GDP is .4%, and now ISM is down.

IMO, Friday is going to be a disaster. Maybe they can get enough lipstick on it to hide it's breath, but not if you analyze the numbers. I've sold some calls, but have waited to buy puts because the market seems almost bullet proof.